In this clash of the titans, it was the Brewers who picked up a Game 1 victory on Friday. Now, Milwaukee will look to make it two straight in front of its home fans. Standing in the way are the Rays, owners of the American League’s best record. Tampa Bay’s offense only mustered two runs during last night’s defeat. Can the visitors put together a better performance tonight in Game 2?
The Brewers are favorites (-120) over the Rays; the over/under is set at 6.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s World Series showdown between Tampa Bay and Milwaukee on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Brewers pick, best bet today
- Rays vs. Brewers under 6.5 runs (-110): Henderson avoids walks and performs even better at home. That lines up nicely against a contact-oriented Tampa Bay offense. It’s a somewhat similar story for the Brewers, albeit with more plate discipline. However, Rasmussen has been one of the sport’s best at avoiding baserunners. Don’t expect much scoring against two of baseball’s most talented starters.
Rays vs. Brewers prediction, preview
Tampa Bay came close to a ninth inning comeback on Friday, but fell just short. When presented with scoring opportunities, this offense needs to capitalize. That’s not to say the American League champs are inept at the plate. However, an assembly line approach can only do so much against elite pitching. During the regular season, the Rays were only 12th in runs scored (736). With that being said, they performed much better against right-handers (.751 OPS) compared to lefties (.678 OPS). As an added bonus, no team in the majors struck out fewer times than Tampa Bay.
This lineup will have its hands full tonight against one of Milwaukee’s top arms. Rookie right-hander Logan Henderson has been as advertised, emerging as a rotation staple for the Brewers. Through 98.1 innings of work (18 starts), the 24-year-old has notched a 2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 110 strikeouts (10.1 K/9). Even more impressive, he’s recorded a minuscule 1.84 ERA when pitching at American Family Field. Henderson’s best attribute might be his command, posting a 96th percentile walk rate (5.1%). Rays batters only averaged 3.17 walks per game during the regular season, fifth-worst in baseball. If things get shaky on the mound, manager Pat Murphy can turn to a terrific group of relievers. Milwaukee’s bullpen has notched a 1.41 ERA this postseason.
Tampa Bay will counter Henderson with a standout hurler of its own in Drew Rasmussen. The postseason has been a bit of a coming out party for the two-time All-Star, highlighted by his one-hit masterpiece vs. the Yankees in the ALDS. Over 172.0 innings (30 starts) in the regular season, the righty posted a 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 174 strikeouts (9.1 K/9). The Rays opted not to send their ace to the mound in Game 1, preferring to give him some extra rest. Rasmussen has surrendered two earned runs or less in 11 of his previous 12 appearances.
Much like their opponents tonight, the Brewers aren’t likely to hit one out of the park. However, a bat to ball approach at the plate has yielded some impressive results. They’re second in runs scored (832), first in batting average (.258) and first in on-base percentage (.341). Milwaukee’s level of patience could be tested against one of the sport’s top arms. Rasmussen, much like Henderson, displays exemplary command of the strike zone. He sits within the 97th percentile in walk rate (4.8%). The veteran allowed 6.5 hits per nine innings to opponents, fifth-fewest among qualified starters. Keeping that in mind, expect another tight, low-scoring World Series matchup between these two juggernauts.
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