The No. 23 SMU Mustangs will host the California Golden Bears on Saturday, pitting one ACC contender against a conference foe desperate to get back to .500. The Mustangs notched their third straight win last week coming off a bye, while the Golden Bears just suffered their worst defeat of the season so far.
SMU is a 18.5-point home favorite on Saturday with -1100 moneyline odds, while Cal has +700 moneyline odds. The game total for the conference showdown is set at 55.5 points. Here is a preview of the Week 8 showdown featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cal Golden Bears vs. SMU Mustangs Preview
California
After faltering in the fourth quarter against UCLA in their season opener, the Golden Bears appeared to get back on track with a three-point road win against Syracuse and a 49-7 blowout over Wagner. From there, though, Cal lost by two touchdowns to Clemson and fell eight points short against UNLV on the road. A 25-20 win over Virginia Tech broke up the losing streak, only for the Bears to get blown out 41-7 on their own home turf versus No. 17 Wake Forest.
First-year coach Tosh Lupoi benched Colorado State transfer Jackson Brousseau during that Wake Forest game, turning the reins back over to Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele two weeks after his injury against UNLV. Sagapolutele was 15-for-18 with 110 yards and a touchdown after checking in, while Brousseau had been 17-for-29 with 81 yards without a score. Lupoi was mum on the quarterback situation this week, but Sagapolutele is widely expected to start. The high-profile sophomore is completing 67.0% of his passes for nine touchdowns, five interceptions, 1,290 yards and a 137.4 passer rating. Brousseau, meanwhile, boasts a 62.5% completion percentage with three touchdowns, no picks, 701 yards and a 119.8 passer rating.
Both quarterbacks have fed Chase Hendricks, who is up to 415 yards and two touchdowns on 47 receptions. Ian Strong isn’t far behind at 396 yards and is far more explosive on just 28 catches, but he is out with an injury. The Golden Bears have two more targets over 175 yards – tight ends Mason Mini and Taimane Purcell. Running back Adam Mohammed has 168 receiving yards to go with his 336 yards on the ground. He and Ashten Emory – who has 273 scrimmage yards under his belt – have scored four touchdowns apiece. Emory will have to take on a larger role, though, with Mohammed out with injury and backup Carter Vargas also ruled out.
Cal ranks No. 100 in points scored and No. 105 in points allowed on a per-game basis. Between Sagapolutele and Brousseau, the Bears’ passing game ranks No. 127 out of 138 FBS programs in yards per pass attempt. In the opponent-adjusted SP+ efficiency rankings, Cal ranks No. 98 overall with the No. 89 defense, No. 100 offense and No. 135 special teams.
SMU
The Mustangs opened the season with a chaotic, lightning-delayed win over Florida State, followed by a 56-10 victory against UC Davis. A 41-31 loss at then-No. 23 Louisville spoiled SMU’s own rise through the rankings, but they have followed it up with a 10-point win over Missouri State, a nine-point win against Boston College and a 10-point win versus Virginia coming off a bye.
Kevin Jennings leads the ACC with 306.5 passing yards per game, totaling 16 touchdowns and five interceptions through six games. He is completing 72.9% of his attempts with a 175.7 passer rating, on top of his 95 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Jennings’ top target is Yamir Knight, who is up to 418 yards and two touchdowns on 35 catches. Jalen Cooper is also on the verge of 300 receiving yards, while Yannick Smith is sitting at 318. The tight end duo of Randy Pittman Jr. and Theo Melin Öhrström has accounted for four touchdowns apiece, as well.
Kendrick Raphael is the Mustangs’ featured back with 609 yards and six touchdowns from scrimmage. While Dramekco Green is chipping in 22.2 rushing yards and 22.2 receiving yards per game, he broke his hand against Boston College and won’t play Saturday.
SMU currently ranks No. 47 in FBS in both points scored and points against per game. That balance shows in the SP+ rankings as well, where the Mustangs come in at No. 28 on defense and No. 31 on offense. Despite their special teams ranking No. 118, SMU ranks No. 25 overall in the metric.
Cal vs. SMU Pick, Best Bet
The injuries, quarterback question marks and a potentially season-sinking blowout loss have the Golden Bears reeling. They just lost by 34 points to a top-25 team at home, and now they have to face another on the road. And like Wake Forest, SMU has an experienced quarterback who can stuff the stat sheet in his own right.
At the same time, the Demon Deacons were able to run up the score so effectively against the Bears thanks to their 220 rushing yards and 6.1 yards per carry. The Mustangs are averaging just 113.0 yards per game and 3.2 yards per attempt on the ground over the past month, plus Jennings isn’t quite as efficient with his legs as Gio Lopez. Excluding the FCS game, SMU’s average margin of victory in their wins is 8.0 points and they have yet to beat an FBS opponent by more than 10. As for Cal, their loss to Wake Forest was their first defeat of 20-plus points in 2026.
SMU is a heavy favorite for a reason, but both sides’ tendencies and track records don’t exactly spell total blowout. Cal should cover here, even if the vibes coming out of Berkeley are rough at the moment.
