#6 Indiana (6-1, 3-1) suffered its first loss in almost two years, a 19-15 defeat against Ohio State. Now, the Hoosiers will attempt to bounce back on the road against a desperate Michigan (4-2, 1-2) squad. The Wolverines have disappointed up until this point, but Saturday gives new head coach Kyle Whittingham an opportunity to pick up a signature win. Which of these Big Ten foes will come out on top this afternoon?
The Hoosiers are listed as seven-point favorites over the Wolverines, with the total set at O/U 42.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Indiana vs. Michigan Week 8 matchup.
Indiana vs. Michigan prediction, preview
Last week was a disappointment for Indiana, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. Replacing a Heisman winner in Fernando Mendoza was never going to be easy, and Josh Hoover is finding that out the hard way. The TCU transfer hasn’t been bad by any means, but the last two weeks have been somewhat alarming. On paper, the numbers haven’t been terrible; he compiled 559 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions against Nebraska and Ohio State. However, Hoover has completed just 51.6% of his pass attempts during that stretch. That level of inefficiency isn’t going to cut it against some of the nation’s better defenses. Fortunately for Hoover, he has an elite receiver duo at his disposal in Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh.
Michigan, for all its ups and downs this season, remains a stingy unit under Whittingham. The team is allowing a Big Ten-best 256.5 yards per game to opponents. There are no true weaknesses for this group, allowing the conference’s fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.8) and third-fewest yards per carry (2.68). As an added bonus, the Wolverines have snatched six interceptions over their first six contests. This crew has yet to allow more than 20 points to any opponent this season, so they’ve been incredibly consistent as well.
Given how good UM’s defense has been, it’s somewhat remarkable the school already has two losses. That’s a testament to just how bad things have been on the other side of the ball. Highly touted quarterback Bryce Underwood has failed to live up to expectations in Ann Arbor. His struggles have gotten so bad that Michigan is making a change at the position, starting freshman Tommy Carr on Saturday. It’s a shocking move, but probably a necessary one. The Wolverines are 17th out of 18 Big Ten programs in points (22.7) and yards (313.3) per game. At this point in the season, a change is needed.
Things have been a bit more respectable for Michigan on the ground. The school is averaging 4.20 yards per rush attempt, led by the duo of Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter. At wideout, JJ Buchanan has hauled in an impressive 482 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Those three will need to play a major role during this afternoon’s matchup.
Moving the ball has proven difficult for the Wolverines against just about every squad this season. Things aren’t likely to get much better against a stifling Indiana defense. IU has surrendered more than 20 points to just one opponent so far, Northwestern. Even more impressive, the Hoosiers are allowing a Big Ten-best 2.28 yards per rush attempt. As previously mentioned, Michigan’s subpar scoring attack relies heavily on its backfield.
Best Bet: Michigan +7.5 (-124)
It’s tempting to back Indiana in this spot, more due to the offensive ineptitude of Michigan. With that being said, this Wolverines defense is more than capable of holding its own on Saturday. That’s especially true at The Big House, where the program has won 11 of its past 13 games. The Hoosiers are still winning, but most of their contests against quality opponents have been nail-biters. Their victories against Northwestern and Nebraska came by one possession. I have a hard time believing an inconsistent offense will score enough to pull away this afternoon.
