#1 Miami (6-0, 4-0) is poised for a second straight college football playoff appearance. Still, the Hurricanes have their eyes set on a bigger prize: winning the national title. Taking care of business against the rest of the ACC would certainly help going forward. It’ll be an uphill climb for Pittsburgh (5-2, 2-2), a program that has had its share of bad luck this season. Can the Panthers turn things around this weekend in southern Florida?
The Hurricanes are listed as 19.5-point favorites over the Panthers, with the total set at O/U 48.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Pitt vs. Miami Week 8 matchup.
Pittsburgh vs. Miami prediction, preview
A season that started with promise has turned into a disaster for Pitt. The team managed to earn a spot in the AP Poll…and then got upset at home vs. North Carolina. To make matters worse, the Panthers suffered a 27-21 defeat on the road last week to Boston College. It’s no coincidece that Pat Narduzzi’s crew has dropped two streaight since losing quarterback Mason Heintschel for the season with a torn ACL. Backups Holden Geriner and Corey Dailey have both gotten a start in Heintschel’s absence, with little success between the two. Narduzzi will turn back to Geriner for today’s contest, but a mid-game substitution wouldn’t come as a shock.
If the Panthers are going to consistently move the chains tonight, it’ll likely be up to running back Damon Ferguson Jr.. The freshman has recorded 438 rushing yards and four total touchdowns this season. Unfortunately for Pitt, this is one of the nation’s the most difficult opponent to run the ball against. Miami is allowing 2.34 yards per rush attempt this season, second-best in the ACC. As a unit, the Hurricanes are giving up college football’s seventh-fewest points per game (14.0). If not for a surprising 35-point outburst from Florida State last weekend, Miami’s season-long numbers would look even better.
As if this Canes defense wasn’t enough, the other side of the ball might be even more intimidating. Darin Mensah has been a terrific addition at quarterback, emerging as a legitimate Heisman contender. The Duke transfer has thrown for 1,764 yards, 18 touchdowns and just one interception this season. Just as impressive, he’s notched an ACC-best 80.8% completion percentage. Granted, the gunslinger has certainly had some help. Wide receiver Malachi Toney is nothing short of spectacular, and could rack up some hardware himself this season. Through six outings, the sophomore has snagged 50 catches for 758 yards and eight touchdowns. On the ground, Javian Mallory and Mark Fletcher Jr. have combined for 770 rushing yards and 11 scores. Six different Miami players have produced a rushing touchdown this season.
This will be a battle of strength on strength inside the trenches. As previously mentioned, the Hurricanes are second in the ACC in yards allowed per rush attempt. First in that category are the Panthers, surrendering a meager 1.99 yards per carry. If the underdogs are going to keep things close, stuffing a handful of short yardage plays will be essential. It’s not as if that number is a fluke; Pitt typically prioritizes stopping the run. However, they didn’t do a great job of it the last time these two squads met. Miami racked up 38 points and 140 rushing yards in a dominant road victory last November. Head coach Mario Cristobal will be hoping for a similar performance today at Hard Rock Stadium.
Best Bet: Pitt under 13.5 points (+110)
Given Miami’s dominance and past success in this spot, it’s hard to muster up any excitement for the visitors. That’s before factoring in Pitt’s quarterback issues, a situation where neither option looks ready to compete. Miami will make sure to stuff the box against Geriner, forcing him into difficult throws all afternoon. On the flip side, Pitt’s knack for stopping the run doesn’t mean they’ll be able to keep Mensah and Toney in check as well. The Hurricanes should dominate time of possession, leading to a meager output on offense from the Panthers.
