129 days since confetti fell on Frost Bank Center to celebrate the New York Knicks’ title over the San Antonio Spurs, the NBA season is back. The Spurs, who became the first team in NBA history to blow four 10-plus-point leads in a single NBA Finals series in June, are hungry for redemption.
San Antonio will begin its revenge tour at 9:30 p.m. ET with a Western Conference Finals rematch against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who it ousted in seven games to advance to its first Finals since 2014 and prevent the Thunder from repeating.
Both teams enter the season with a few health questions. The Spurs’ only major offseason signing, Tobias Harris, will miss tonight’s game with a calf injury. As for Oklahoma City, Chet Holmgren (quad) and Jaylin Williams (heel) didn’t play in the preseason, so any potential absence could leave the Thunder thin in the middle.
San Antonio is a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-135 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 231.5. The Thunder are +114 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down this highly-anticipated rivalry showdown and offer a prediction.
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs preview, prediction
Oklahoma City underwent some change in the offseason, but it managed to return most of its 2024/25 championship core nonetheless. Despite trading away Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe during the offseason in order to shed salary and open up room for Jalen Williams’ and Holmgren’s contract extensions, the Thunder still have Holmgren, Jalen Williams, two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and starting center Isaiah Hartenstein in addition to critical bench pieces Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain, and Jaylin Williams. Newly-extended Cason Wallace will likely slide into the starting lineup on a full-time basis after starting 58 games last season.
The Spurs also ran back their Finals core, and given that arguably their three best players (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper) are all on rookie contracts, they were able to slightly upgrade their roster (once Harris returns from injury) without making any downgrades. Instead, San Antonio shored up the backup center position by bringing in Jayden Quaintance and Tarris Reed Jr. to compete with Luke Kornet for minutes behind Wembanyama, although the Spurs are mainly relying on internal development from Harper (who will start alongside both Castle and De’Aaron Fox) and Carter Bryant for improvements.
Thunder at Spurs pick, best bet
In any matchup between Wembanyama, the 2025/26 Defensive Player of the Year, and Holmgren, the runner-up, interior scoring will be difficult to come by. During last season’s Western Conference Finals, San Antonio shot just 59.5% inside the restricted area and Oklahoma City only 54.4%. In the regular season, both teams also attempted restricted-area tries at among the highest rates and converted pretty efficiently, and the Spurs’ finishing could be even better this year as Harper, who made 66.7% of his layups during the NBA Finals, becomes more and more comfortable with the speed of the league. These two strong finishing teams will need to bring their A-game, given that in the regular season, the Thunder conceded the lowest percentage and San Antonio the fifth-lowest mark.
The Spurs should have a major edge in the rebounding battle, as they snagged boards at the sixth-highest rate and Oklahoma City the 11th-lowest during the 2025/26 regular season. San Antonio also narrowly won the rebounding battle during the Western Conference Finals, and, as big guards, Castle and Fox can more than hold their own on the glass. Oklahoma City should be able to make up for some of that edge in transition, as it was effective on fast-breaks while committing few giveaways offensively, but the Spurs, too, play pretty cleanly overall despite Castle’s and Wembanyama’s occasional overzealousness. Both teams were relatively disciplined and pretty good at getting to the charity stripe, although San Antonio made 16 more total free throws than the Thunder did across their seven games.
Neither team is an elite three-point shooting team, but both are led by superstars with so much gravity that they open up easy looks. As a result, Oklahoma City finished the regular season ninth in three-point percentage and the Spurs 15th, and in the Conference Finals, both teams shot roughly 34%. Of the two, I’d expect San Antonio to improve more, given that the Thunder lost their best three-point shooter (Joe) and Castle’s jumper improved mightily throughout the course of the season, but Oklahoma City was better at both preventing uncontested looks and generating them offensively. The shooting battle could go either way, as the Spurs made more threes in four of the seven games during the Western Conference Finals.
Ultimately, it’s hard for me to overlook the fact that San Antonio won eight of the 12 times that the teams faced off between the regular season and the playoffs. Given the Spurs’ home-court advantage, where they went 4-1 against the Thunder combined between the regular season and the playoffs, they should have a clear edge. Starting the Fox-Castle-Harper trio after they barely played together during the playoffs could be a work in progress, but Holmgren struggled to deal with Wembanyama in the playoffs after a full season of preparation. I struggle to see how he does better after not playing a competitive game for nearly five months.
