Kicking off at 8 p.m. ET, the Navy Midshipmen will face off against the UTSA Roadrunners as part of the Week 7 college football slate on Saturday night.
This marks the first-ever meeting between these two programs on the football field. UTSA will host the matchup between these American Conference opponents, looking to extend its three-game winning streak and improve on its 5-1 overall record. Navy enters with a 2-3 record after snapping a three-game losing streak with a victory over Tulsa last week.
Looking at the odds, UTSA enters as 6.5-point favorites with -258 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Navy is +210 to win outright, with the game total set at 55.5 points.
This article offers a brief preview of both teams and a pick for the Week 7 matchup.
Navy vs. UTSA Preview
Navy Midshipmen
It has not been the desired start to the season for the Navy Midshipmen. They enter with a 2-3 overall record and have gone 1-2 in American Conference play. Navy opened the year with a victory over Towson before dropping three consecutive matchups against FAU, UAB and Air Force. Most recently, the Midshipmen snapped their losing streak with a victory over Tulsa. Navy is just 1-4 against the spread this season.
As has come to be expected from service academy programs, Navy leans heavily on its rushing attack. The Midshipmen are averaging 299.4 rushing yards per game compared with 102.0 passing yards per game. Jackson Gutierrez lines up under center, leading the team with 505 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while adding 439 passing yards and four passing touchdowns.
Braxton Woodson has also taken snaps at quarterback, recording 71 passing yards, 299 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Michael Barrow and Vic Listorti have each added more than 200 rushing yards. Truman Brasfield is the only pass catcher with more than 100 receiving yards and has recorded a pair of touchdowns. With its rushing attack leading the way, Navy is averaging 27.0 points per game.
Defensively, there is more trouble with this Navy team. The Midshipmen are giving up 23.4 points per game and allowing 322.0 yards of offense on average. They have given up 23+ points in three of the five matchups, while failing to crack the top 100 in strength of schedule.
UTSA Roadrunners
The UTSA Roadrunners have gotten off to an encouraging start, posting a 5-1 record while winning both of their conference games. They will look to extend their three-game winning streak, with their lone loss coming against then-No. 1 Texas. Most recently, the Roadrunners defeated Colorado State, Rice and South Florida. UTSA has gone 4-1-1 against the spread this season, according to the figures provided.
Quarterback Owen McCown has completed 68.7% of his pass attempts for 1,219 passing yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions. He has also tallied 89 yards on the ground. Will Henderson III headlines the rushing attack, with 484 rushing yards and three scores, while A’Marion Peterson adds a team-high seven rushing scores along with 286 yards on the ground. Brandon High also has contributed 231 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Through the air, DJ Allen leads the team with 269 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns. AJ Wilson, Mekhi Anderson, and David Amador II have also recorded 200+ yards through the air this year in a balanced receiving group. UTSA is averaging 31.3 points per game and 401.5 total yards of offense with a balanced attack.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Roadrunners are conceding 25.8 points per game. They have had some issues stopping the run, which could prove problematic in this matchup. Opponents are rushing for 184.7 yards per game against the Roadrunners and scoring 1.7 touchdowns per game.
Navy vs. UTSA Pick, Best Bet
UTSA is in strong form and has its sights set on the American Conference title. They also have had major success protecting their home field. Since 2020, the Roadrunners have gone 26-1 against conference opponents when playing at the Alamodome.
However, Navy’s advantage in the rushing game is a major factor in this matchup. The Midshipmen are averaging nearly 300 rushing yards per game and will face a UTSA defense that has struggled to contain opposing ground attacks. Beyond simply picking up yards, Navy’s rushing-heavy approach allows the team to control the clock and dictate the pace of play.
Expect that style of offense to give Navy a path to keeping this game competitive. Although UTSA has had more success against the spread this season, the underdog has covered in four of the Roadrunners’ last five games. This is an important matchup for Navy as it looks to build momentum against a team that has performed better overall this season.
Navy’s 1-4 record against the spread does not tell the entire story, either. The Midshipmen failed to cover a 31.5-point spread against Towson in the season opener, despite winning by 27 points. FAU defeated Navy 38-30 as an underdog, but the Midshipmen committed two costly turnovers and scored 23 unanswered points in the second half to make the game competitive.
UAB also defeated Navy outright as an underdog, but the Midshipmen carried a lead into the fourth quarter before a pair of fumbles opened the door for the upset. Air Force covered the spread in its win over Navy, although service academy matchups can present unique challenges because of the teams’ similar offensive styles. Most recently, Navy covered for the first time this season against Tulsa and will look to build on that performance.
The Midshipmen have shown enough to suggest they are better than their record against the spread indicates, with several execution issues proving costly. I expect last week’s win to provide a boost and for the rushing attack to give Navy a chance to stay competitive against UTSA.
The Midshipmen are better than they have played this season, with plenty of their execution issues being self-inflicted. Expect last week to be a turning point for the season and for their rushing attack to pave the way to keep this game competitive and have a chance at a win tonight. UTSA is understandably favored in the matchup, but I am backing Navy to control this matchup with their rushing attack and cover the 6.5-point spread tonight.
