NFL Week 6 Best Bets: Expert Picks and Analysis

There are some great games on the Week 6 NFL slate. With plenty of ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook, this is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 6.

NFL Week 6 Best Bets: Expert Picks, Predictions and Analysis

Ravens/Browns Under 42.5 Total Points (-102)

This should be a rock fight between these two division rivals. The Browns have an elite defense when playing in Cleveland. Since the start of the 2021 season, they are allowing just 18.6 points per game at home. Since struggling against the Jaguars in Week 1, the Browns defense has been really solid, allowing just 19.5 points per game. Tyler Huntley will likely get the start again if Lamar Jackson is unavailable. The Baltimore offense is much more conservative with Huntley at quarterback and rarely pushes the ball downfield. Even if Jackson plays, his ankle injury could limit his mobility, making him much less dangerous than normal. The Browns should keep that Baltimore offense in check.

The Cleveland offense should also struggle in this game. Quinshon Judkins might not play, and the Browns already have one of the worst rush offenses in the league. They rank 31st in offensive EPA/rush, and that will only get worse if Judkins is out. Last week, the Jets shut down the Cleveland offense by forcing Deshaun Watson to be a downfield passer. The Baltimore defense should be able to do the same. The Ravens rank seventh in the NFL in weighted defensive EPA/dropback. Baltimore won the matchup in Cleveland 23-16 last season, and there should be a similar scoreline this time around.

Braelon Allen Anytime Touchdown (+125)

Braelon Allen had a breakout game last week in the Jets’ win over the Browns. With Breece Hall sidelined with an injury, Allen had a career-high 24 carries. He took those 24 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown. Allen is a big, physical ball carrier and seemed to get better as the game went on. While he’s not quite as big as Derrick Henry, he seemed to have a similar effect on the Browns that Henry also has on opposing defenses. After spending the whole game trying to tackle a 6’1, 235-pound back, it gets hard to keep wrapping up in the fourth quarter. That is when Allen was finally able to break a long run for the game-winning touchdown.

The way to attack this New England defense is on the ground. They rank sixth in defensive EPA/dropback, but 30th in defensive EPA/rush. The Patriots also rank 22nd in the NFL in opponent rushing touchdown percentage, allowing 45.45% of opponent touchdowns on the ground. In a tough road game like this, the Jets will also want to run the ball to keep the crowd quiet and keep the ball away from Drake Maye. If Hall remains out, Allen should get plenty of touches and should be able to break one for a touchdown for the second straight week.

Six-Point Teaser: Buccaneers +8.5 & Colts -1

Jalon Daniels looked much better last week than he had in his two previous appearances this season. While he still has a long way to go in his development, he seemed to grow in confidence as the Cowboys game went on. That game was played on Thursday Night Football, so now Daniels and the Buccaneers have had extended time to prepare for this matchup with the Steelers. The Steelers have been below-average defensively this season, ranking 19th in EPA/play and 20th in success rate.

The Pittsburgh offense has been unlocked by its great run game, led by Jaylen Warren. However, Tampa Bay is elite against the run, ranking fifth in the league in defensive EPA/rush. This is a good matchup for the Buccaneers at home on extended rest. They should keep it within one score, at the very least.

The Titans look completely lost at the moment. The Colts should get a win at home against their struggling division rivals. Last week was a tough spot for Indianapolis, going on the road to Pittsburgh the week after coming back from London. The Colts should get back on track in this spot. They still have the best rushing offense in the NFL, ranking first in offensive EPA/rush. They should control the game on the ground, and then hit the occasional deep shot against a Titans defense that ranks 27th in defensive EPA/dropback.