A Texas-sized grudge match takes center stage this weekend in Waco. TCU (2-3, 0-2) has disappointed, coming up just short in several matchups this season. Saturday presents an opportunity to turn the page against an in-state rival. Baylor (4-1, 2-0) has been on a roll, looking like a contender in the Big 12. Can the Bears keep it up this weekend at home?
The Bears are listed as 5.5-point favorites over the Horned Frogs, with the total set at O/U 48.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s TCU vs. Baylor Week 7 matchup.
TCU vs. Baylor prediction, preview
The Horned Frogs aren’t the flashiest group, with an offense that often appears stuck in neutral. They’re averaging just 405.4 yards per game, fourth-fewest in the Big 12. To add insult to injury, all three of the school’s losses this season have come by one possession. That includes a narrow 17-10 defeat two weeks prior against #8 BYU. Quarterback play has been inconsistent at best in Fort Worth. Quarterback Jaden Craig has thrown for 1,400 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. As a unit, TCU’s offense has only scored a touchdown on 60% of its trips to the red zone. Inefficiency is never ideal for an offense that already struggles moving the ball.
Gaining positive yardage could prove difficult for the Horned Frogs yet again this evening. Baylor is giving up a Big 12-best 254.4 yards per game to opponents. Most impressive, the defensive line has surrendered a minuscule 2.88 yards per rush attempt. The Bears have held all five of their opponents so far to less than 20 points. That includes Power Four programs such as Auburn, Colorado and Arizona State. This group’s secondary has been excellent, allowing just 6.0 yards per pass attempt to opposing quarterbacks. They’ll hope to deliver another stellar performance against Craig, an inconsistent passer.
It hasn’t been an ideal start to the season for DJ Lagway, who missed two games due to injury. However, the former Florida quarterback put together one of his best games at the collegiate level last time out. The junior threw for 306 yards and four touchdowns, while scrambling for another score, against Arizona State. Just as important, he didn’t cough up any interceptions. When the big-armed passer is playing clean football, this Bears squad becomes difficult to slow down. That’s without factoring in an underrated backfield. Four different Baylor running backs have churned out more than 120 rushing yards this season.
As previously mentioned, TCU plays an ugly brand of football. That’s not meant to be an insult; this team hangs around in games thanks to its tenacious defense. The Horned Frogs have surrendered the second-fewest yards per game in the conference (255.0). Even during their defeat against BYU, TCU only allowed 216 yards of offense. With that being said, this team struggles when it comes to generating pressure. They’ve posted the Big 12’s fourth-fewest sacks (10.0) and second-fewest tackles for loss (24.0). In comparison, Baylor’s offensive line has allowed a modest total of 8.0 sacks so far.
Best Bet: Baylor -5.5 (-110)
It’s not hard to imagine TCU keeping pace in a low-scoring affair tonight. However, it really feels as if Lagway has turned a corner. If the junior limits any sloppy mistakes, he becomes one of the nation’s more lethal passers. A functional running game and stifling defense of their own gives the Bears an advantage heading into this rivalry match.
