James Cook III and the Buffalo Bills will prepare for a Monday Night thriller against the Los Angeles Rams to close down the Week 5 NFL slate. Both teams hold legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, and this is a key measuring stick matchup for each side. The Bills enter with a 3-1 record to start the year, while the Rams have improved to 2-2.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Rams enter as 3.5-point favorites and hold -175 odds to win outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bills hold +145 odds to produce the upset, with the game total set at O/U 54.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action. You can check out the preview for the game outlook and plenty more on DraftKings Network here. But let’s look at my top James Cook III prop bet for tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup.
James Cook III Best Rushing Yard Pick vs. Rams
James Cook III Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
It has been an overall encouraging start to the season for James Cook III. The three-time Pro Bowler led the NFL in rushing yards last season with 1,621 or 95.4 per game. There is a fair critique that he has been underutilized through the first four weeks, but he has still tallied 421 rushing yards and three rushing scores on 70 total attempts. Cook III has finished with rushing totals of 57, 135, 154, and 75 yards across the opening four games.
The production of Cook III has been fairly consistent, even if his level of opportunity has been erratic. Through the first four games, he is posting a career-best 6.0 yards per carry this season. He has tallied 130+ yards in both games in which he has seen 20+ carries this year. Last week against the Patriots, Cook III was limited to just 12 rush attempts, but still recorded 75 rushing yards and a touchdown.
This is a great matchup to further build off his start to the season and for more volume to be sent his direction. Los Angeles has a strong overall defense which currently ranks eighth in the NFL in opponents points allowed and first in opponents’ yards gained. But they grade worse against the run, and Buffalo will be eager to attack with this in mind. The Rams rank first in the NFL in total passing yards allowed, first in net yards per pass attempt, and third in EPA per pass play. In contrast, Los Angeles ranks 12th in total rushing yards allowed, 13th in yards allowed per carry, and 14th in EPA per rushing play. The Philadelphia Eagles rushed for 104 yards on the ground last week, even after Saquon Barkley suffered an injury on the first drive. The 49ers gashed Los Angeles for 174 rushing yards in the season opener.
It is in the Bills’ best interest to establish the running game and take advantage of the most vulnerable part of the Rams’ defense. Cook III will be the biggest beneficiary of this, and the 77.5 rushing line is a comfortable bar to clear. He eclipsed this in 11 of his 17 games played last year and in two of the four this season. He has tallied just 25 combined rushing attempts in the two games he fell short, and 21+ in both games he exceeded it. There will be an effort to establish the running game to work in Cook III’s favor and for him to be a staple of the Bills’ attack throughout.
