Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams will face the Buffalo Bills in a Week 5 showdown. This high-profile matchup pits two teams with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations against each other, making it an important game for both sides.
The Rams enter as 3.5-point home favorites with -175 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bills are +145 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at O/U 54.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved. Check out the game preview and more on DraftKings Network. For now, here’s my top Matthew Stafford prop bet for Monday Night Football.
Matthew Stafford Best Passing Touchdowns Pick vs. Bills
Matthew Stafford Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+131)
The season has started uneasily for the reigning NFL MVP. Through the first four weeks, Stafford has completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 1,189 yards, six touchdowns, and six interceptions. Los Angeles looked concerning in its season-opening 27-7 loss to the 49ers, with Stafford limited to just 155 passing yards and a pick. Since then, he has thrown for at least 317 yards in three straight weeks, with six touchdowns and five interceptions.
If you’re looking for a get-right spot for Stafford, the Bills’ defense is a great place to look. Buffalo enters this game having allowed at least 29 points in three of their first four games. They rank 25th in points allowed, 27th in total yards allowed, 30th in opponent passing yards, T-27th in opponent passing touchdowns, and T-24th in yards per pass attempt. This is especially notable as the Bills rank T-6th in rushing touchdowns allowed, and grade much more favorably in stopping the run.
Los Angeles prefers to drive the ball through the air, and this matchup could encourage that approach. Drake Maye threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns against Buffalo last week, while Jared Goff threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns against the Bills earlier this season.
Even if he isn’t playing at his peak this season, Stafford’s 18-year sample size warrants more stock. The 38-year-old quarterback has aged like fine wine. A convincing case can be made that the future Hall of Famer played his best football last year, and those flashes are still evident this season.
Stafford led the NFL with 46 passing touchdowns in 2025. He averaged 2.7 passing touchdowns per game and recorded at least three passing scores in nine of his 17 starts. Despite his early-season struggles, he has already thrown four touchdown passes in a game this season. Stafford will also benefit from his receiver corps returning to full strength. Puka Nacua and Colby Parkinson have each missed some time, but are not expected to have any restrictions, and Davante Adams continues to produce at an elite level. With the Bills’ defensive vulnerabilities in mind, plenty of scoring paths exist.
The game total is set at 54.5 points, suggesting a shootout. In a showdown between the past two MVPs, both should be looking to shine in primetime. Considering the matchup advantage and the pace the Rams will need to score, expect the Rams’ star to throw for more than 2.5 passing touchdowns on Monday Night Football.
