It’s been a mixed bag so far for the Buffalo Bills under new head coach Joe Brady, as their offense looks expectedly brilliant and their defense expectedly porous. Buffalo’s offense consistently produces breakout stars; just as 2025 saw James Cook play to an All-Pro level for the first time, 2026 has been marked by Dalton Kincaid’s emergence as a prolific tight end.
The 26-year-old will have the chance to put his skills on full display in primetime tonight as the Bills travel to face the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. The game is set to begin at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Buffalo is a 3.5-point underdog for tonight’s matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook (+145 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 54.5. Los Angeles is -175 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around Kincaid.
Best Dalton Kincaid Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Dalton Kincaid U54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Although Kincaid ranks second among tight ends in receiving yards per game and has cleared this prop in two of his four games, he’s trending in the wrong direction. He had 130 yards in Week 1 against the Houston Texans, 95 in Week 2, 38 in Week 3, and just seven yards on one catch in Week 4. His limited Week 4 production probably isn’t the new norm — he still played a majority of the team’s snaps, so it wasn’t a function of decreased playing time — but it’s not something to entirely discount, either.
Although his playing time hasn’t gone down yet, it might if he continues to struggle in his secondary role. His offensive grades have decreased with each successive week, per Pro Football Focus, and he especially struggled as a run-blocker in Week 4. He still ranks seventh overall in yards after catch over expectation per reception, and he’s managed the second-most yards of separation per targeted route on the team, but his relatively deep routes take time to develop, and the Bills’ offensive line hasn’t consistently given Josh Allen that time. Allen has been pressured at the eighth-highest rate this season.
Still, this prop has more to do with Kincaid’s opposition than his skills. This season, the Rams have allowed just 85 total yards to opposing tight ends, by far the fewest in the league, and they’ve had easily the best coverage grades in the league overall. Kincaid can line up either in line, in the slot, or out wide, but either way, Los Angeles has the defenders to challenge him; safety and slot corner Quentin Lake has allowed just a 64.8 passer rating in coverage, and outside corner Trent McDuffie (22.5) has been even more spectacular. Among players Kincaid might reasonably be matched up against, safety Kamren Curl (76.7) is the weakest link.
