Derrick Henry Rushing Attempts Pick for Ravens vs. Falcons

Derrick Henry and the Baltimore Ravens will close out the Week 5 Sunday slate in a matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. Some additional responsibility will be on the plate of the star running back tonight with Lamar Jackson sidelined due to an ankle injury.

Looking at the odds for the SNF matchup, the Falcons enter as three-point favorites and hold -175 odds to win outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Ravens hold +145 odds to produce the upset, with the game total set at O/U 43.5 points.

There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action. You can check out the preview for the game outlook and plenty more on DraftKings Network here. But let’s look at my top Derrick Henry prop bet for tonight’s Sunday Night Football matchup.

Derrick Henry Best Rushing Attempts Pick vs. Falcons

Derrick Henry Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-112)

The outlook for the entire Baltimore Ravens’ offensive attack shifts notably without Lamar Jackson on the field. There is no replacing the two-time MVP, and even more responsibility will fall on the shoulders of Derrick Henry with Tyler “Snoop” Huntley lining up under center. Huntley has 31 career appearances, made two starts for the Ravens last year, and has a playing style similar to Jackson’s but there will be some expected offensive growing pains tonight.

Looking at Henry’s production thus far, the Ravens star leads the NFL with 89 rush attempts through the first four games. He has turned these opportunities into 374 rushing yards and seven touchdowns already this year. Henry has tallied 23+ carries in three of the four games this season.

This is a tough matchup against a stiff Falcons’ defense. Atlanta ranks 30th in passing yards allowed and 21st in passing touchdowns conceded, but first in total rushing yards allowed and yards per rush attempt allowed. Given the strong defensive matchup, there is not a clear path to production for Henry. But don’t expect Baltimore to completely abandon their identity, especially given the limitations of having a backup quarterback on the field. The Ravens are committed to running the football at a high rate, and this will remain the case tonight.

Given the lofty prop lines that come with his stat outlooks and the stacked box he should be expected to face, I am backing Henry’s rushing attempts over rather than his rushing yards over.. Expect a clear effort to be made to establish the rushing attack in this game, even with the strong matchup of note. He is averaging 22.3 rush attempts per game on the season and has led the NFL in rush attempts in four different seasons in his career. Expect the 19.5 rush attempt line to be too low as Baltimore makes a clear effort not to be entirely dependent on the production of Huntley tonight. Buckle up for the smash mouth identity of this Ravens team to remain and for Henry to surpass 19.5 rush attempts for the fourth time already this season.