Not long ago, Colts vs. Steelers matchups were among the biggest in the NFL. Battles between Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger often shaped the AFC playoff picture and the eventual Super Bowl winner. Nowadays, it’s less glamorous, but it still has real playoff consequences. With both squads at 2-2, the winner will have significantly more playoff momentum heading into Week 6.
Pittsburgh is a three-point home favorite with -148 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Indianapolis is a +124 underdog, with the game total set at 43.5 points.
Let’s dig into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Colts-Steelers matchup.
Colts vs. Steelers Game Preview
Weeks 1-4 have been a mixed bag for the Colts. They got shelled defensively in the first two weeks, giving up 74 combined points in back-to-back losses to the Ravens and the Chiefs. The offense tried to keep up, but it wasn’t enough. To avoid the dreaded 0-3 start, the defense buckled down for a gritty 19-17 win over the Texans, then doubled down by beating the Commanders to get back to .500.
With the defense holding serve, Jonathan Taylor has had the platform to carry the team. Indianapolis’ star running back has 86 carries for 353 yards and six touchdowns early on this season. The Colts’ offensive line remains a major strength, and Taylor makes the most of the opportunities it creates.
One problem that isn’t going anywhere is Daniel Jones. The Colts were in a tough spot this offseason; Jones was a free agent after a booming start to the 2025 season, followed by a torn Achilles. Jones’ sample size of positive productivity was small, and he might not be physically the same. GM Chris Ballard re-signed him, and so far, that looks like a mistake. Jones is saddled with the league’s fourth-worst EPA (-31.95) under center and has been a massive anchor for the Colts so far. If they stay in the playoff race while Jones struggles, they may have to look for an outside upgrade or spin the wheel on Anthony Richardson.
If you’re looking for bad quarterback play, Aaron Rodgers has you covered. At -34.97 EPA, Rodgers has been the league’s worst quarterback in total points taken away from his team. With nothing left in his legs and a podcast-filled retirement looming, Rodgers has been a dead man walking this year. He’s frustrated with his receivers and his head coach, but he can’t identify the problem. The team has DK Metcalf and former Colt Michael Pittman Jr., but it’s lost as long as Rodgers is struggling.
It’s almost as if Mike Tomlin is still coaching this team; overcoming terrible QB play with the run game and the defense is the most Tomlin-coded thing imaginable. With Rico Dowdle out, Jaylen Warren is carrying the load, piling up 452 total scrimmage yards over four weeks. Their rock-solid defensive line sets the stage for a rangy linebacking corps and a talented secondary to impose their will. If the offense keeps them off the field more often, this defense is dangerous.
Sounds very “no, duh,” but this is all up to the quarterbacks. With two good defenses and two great running games, the QB who avoids costly mistakes and converts a few crucial third downs should come out on top. But it’s tough to predict when both have been so bad early in the season.
Colts vs. Steelers Pick, Best Bet
My gut says the defenses will set the tone here. Indy’s corners will make life hard for Aaron Rodgers and the passing game, and Pittsburgh’s pass rush will force Daniel Jones to duck and dive on legs that don’t fully work yet. Unless Jonathan Taylor and Jaylen Warren can both break a few huge runs, this one looks like a snoozer.
