We’ve got a decisive pair of Game 3s on Friday night. First things first, the Atlanta Dream are going on the road to try and sweep the series against the New York Liberty. Then, the Golden State Valkyries will try to do the same against the defending-champion Las Vegas Aces. With so many stars and such high stakes, let’s look at the player prop market for these two games.
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty
Jordin Canada 25+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (-112)
So far, the New York Liberty have had no answers for Jordin Canada. In Atlanta’s Game 1 win, Canada led the team in scoring with 25 points while pitching in a rebound and four assists. She took it to another level in Game 2, leading the team again with 23 points while grabbing five boards and dishing eight assists. Small sample size to be sure, but a 33 P/R/A average through two games is nothing to sneeze at for the Dream’s diminutive point guard.
Allisha Gray’s possible return puts a damper on things, but given her finger injury and the game-time decision, I’m not expecting much production from her. Head coach Karl Smesko won’t fix what isn’t broken and will put the ball in Canada’s hands early and often.
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces
Kiah Stokes Under 2.5 Points (-127)
This isn’t a sexy pick, but it’s a layup. Stokes has scored exactly eight points in five playoff games, and has been held scoreless through two games against the Aces. Their starting center has attempted only four field goals in those two games, three from beyond the arc, which isn’t exactly her bag.
It’s not a knock on their defensive specialist, who is dialed in on guarding A’ja Wilson and battling for the boards. Much of her offensive value comes from her offensive rebounding, but instead of going for putbacks, Stokes opts to kick the ball out to their perimeter players. A player who isn’t even thinking about scoring is a good fade.
Veronica Burton Under 10.5 Points (-128)
This one is rather easy, too. Burton has struggled mightily to score in this series, putting up a combined 12 points on 2-of-9 shooting through two games. Late-game foul shenanigans in Game 2 doubled her already lackluster scoring output. Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young have taken her out of the offensive equation entirely, and the looming threat of A’ja Wilson in the paint isn’t helping matters.
It’s fair to be skeptical of a line that Burton cleared in 28 of 44 regular-season games and in 2 of 3 Round 1 playoff games against the Wings. But the Aces came with a plan to take her away, and it’s working for them so far. Expect Golden State’s star point guard to struggle once again.
