A brand new Pac 12 matchup is on tap tonight in Logan. Washington State (1-4) is in a rut, having just gotten decimated 26-6 by Fresno State. Still, the Cougars are a more talented group than their record might suggest. An in-conference matchup with Utah State (1-4) presents an opportunity to reverse course. With that being said, the Aggies will be eager to pick up a win at home. Which side has the edge going into this Friday night showdown?
The Aggies are listed as 5.5-point favorites over the Cougars, with the total set at O/U 44.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Friday’s Washington State vs. Utah State Week 6 matchup.
Washington State vs. Utah State prediction, preview
To call this a bad start for Wazzu is being generous. The team has looked uncompetitive for most of the season, losing by double-digit points in three of its last four contests. That includes the aforementioned defeat to Fresno State, a humiliating loss at home in Pullman. The offense has been the biggest issue on campus, scoring ten points or fewer in three of five games so far. Quarterback Caden Pinnick hasn’t been great, recording 796 yards, six total touchdowns and five interceptions. It’s not as if he’s gotten much support from a middling group of running backs (4.1 YPC). Washington State’s offense is converting just 20.0% of its third-down attempts, fourth-worst among FBS schools.
Make no mistake: this is not a great Aggies defense. They’ve allowed over 350 total yards in matchups with Washington, Utah and Boise State. With that being said, this group does a solid job against opposing quarterbacks. Teams are averaging 6.4 yards per pass attempt against Utah State, the lowest mark among all eight Pac-12 programs. It’s not as if the run defense has been terrible either, surrendering a middling 4.33 yards per carry. What’s held this group back is mistakes, or an inability to force them. USU currently possesses a conference-worst -7 turnover margin.
Quarterback has been a frequent topic of discussion in Logan. McCae Hillstead started the season as Utah State’s starting QB, only to lose the job following a forearm injury. Replacement Grady Brosterhous has made some big plays, but his six interceptions have held this offense back as well. During last week’s defeat to Boise State, head coach Bronco Mendenhall gave Hillstead a few drives in an effort to reintroduce him into this offense. As things stand right now, it’s anyone’s guess as to what the Aggies will do under center going forward. Unlike Washington State, USU does have a standout running back in Javen Jacobs (331 yds.). Still, the team is only averaging a Pac-12 worst 14.0 points per game.
Coming into this season, Washington State’s hopes on reaching a bowl game hinged on its defense. This group hasn’t been terrible by any means, but it’s a far cry from elite status. The Cougs are allowing 379.2 yards per game to opponents, fourth-best in the conference. If not for a 48-7 throttling of FCS Duquesne, those numbers would look much worse. The secondary has done its job, limiting opposing passers to just 6.8 yards per attempt. However, teams are averaging 4.73 yards per carry against Wazzu on the ground. Much like Utah State, turnovers haven’t been a strong suit for this crew. Washington State has hauled in just three interceptions this season, tied with the Aggies for last in the Pac-12.
Best Bet: Washington State vs. Utah State under 44.5 points (-118)
Two sloppy, mistake-prone offenses on a short week? It’s hard to get too excited about either team’s chances at putting points on the board. Pinnick hasn’t looked comfortable in the pocket all season, and he now faces an underrated Utah State secondary. On the other side, the Aggies are dealing with plenty of uncertainty under center; neither Brosterhous or Hillstead inspires much confidence. Keeping that in mind, a physical, low-scoring affair feels likelier than not tonight in Logan.
