It’s time for a massive Game 3 between the New York Liberty and the Atlanta Dream. We had an electric overtime affair on Wednesday, with the Dream ultimately prevailing 101-98. It’s now do-or-die time for New York, who will look to defend home court on Friday night and keep their season alive.
The Liberty enter as 2.5-point home favorites with -155 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Dream are +130 underdogs, with the game total set at 171.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Dream-Liberty matchup.
Dream vs. Liberty Preview
Game 2 was as close as a playoff game can be. Atlanta and New York went toe-to-toe for a full 40 minutes, with everything coming down to the final possession. Down three, the Liberty trusted an unlikely player to send the game to OT: Marine Fauthoux. The rookie delivered with one of the shots of the season:
The rookie was a key contributor for New York all night long, pouring in 20 points off the bench along with six rebounds and four assists. Jonquel Jones also had a strong game, putting up 21 points along with her usual strong defense. Of course, Breanna Stewart stole the show. It was an all-time performance from an all-time player, as Stewart scored 35 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, and dished six assists along with her strong defense. But all she will be thinking about is the three she missed at the end of overtime, sealing a 101-98 loss.
Atlanta got key contributions from across the roster. Beyond her usual defense, Angel Reese co-led the team with 23 points. Jordin Canada tied her with 23 points and led the team in assists. Though she struggled with her shooting again, Rhyne Howard brought just enough on defense to get Atlanta over the finish line. With DeWanna Bonner admirably stepping into the starting lineup over the injured Allisha Gray, Isobel Borlase provided just enough offensive punch from the bench.
If the Liberty want to keep this series alive, they need to find a way to contain Jordin Canada. The pass-first point guard scored 11.6 points per game in the regular season, but has poured in 48 points through the first two games of this series. You can live with her taking jump shots, but if the Liberty lets her drive with impunity, they’ll go home early.
Many a WNBA team has been dominated by Breanna Stewart, but the Dream have to do a better job keeping her away from mismatches. Too often in Game 2, they let her get the switches she wanted to work in the post or on the drive. Rhyne Howard continues to do a great job on Sabrina Ionescu, who struggled mightily in Game 2, but the rest of the defense has to do more. DeWanna Bonner and Naz Hillmon can make a defensive impact when locked in, and need to do so tonight, especially when it comes to guarding Breanna Stewart.
If Gray plays: Allisha Gray’s return adds a new dimension to this matchup. After missing most of Game 1 and all of Game 2, Atlanta’s sharpshooter is back in the lineup. That’s going to be a huge problem for New York. They’ve had the luxury of loading up on Rhyne Howard on the perimeter, much to the detriment of Howard’s offensive productivity. Already stretched too thin, the Liberty will have to account for one of the game’s best shooters and drivers. That will free up space for Howard, giving Gray more looks in turn, and the advantage will compound until New York’s defense breaks.
If Gray doesn’t play: It’s a massive stroke of luck for the Liberty that Allisha Gray won’t be on the floor. But so far, they haven’t taken advantage of that. Sure, they’ve kept a lid on Rhyne Howard, but the aforementioned Jordin Canada is wrecking them. If they can shift some defensive attention to Canada while keeping Howard at bay, they have to like their chances of keeping the season alive.
Now that we know these two teams a bit better, who will take home the win?
Dream vs. Liberty Pick, Best Bet
The series heading to New York gives the Liberty a fighting chance, but they’re the second-best team in this series. Despite heroics from Breanna Stewart, they don’t have the depth or defense needed to compete here. Atlanta can smell blood in the water, and won’t mess around, winning Game 3 on the road to punch their ticket to the WNBA Finals.
