Aiden Flora threw two touchdowns before halftime, then ran Iowa State past West Virginia. Jimmy Rogers takes a 3–2 team to Provo after his first Big 12 win. Kalani Sitake has BYU at 4–0, but loses LJ Martin and Isaiah Glasker for Friday. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the BYU Cougars and the Iowa State Cyclones.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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BYU vs. Iowa State prediction, preview
Tyler Roehl ought to make BYU chase Flora outside. Flora tore through West Virginia for 212 rushing yards on 22 carries, including touchdowns from 24 and 63 yards. The Cougars have conceded a stingy 2.7 yards per carry through four games; Iowa State starts an entirely rebuilt line. Roehl can call short throws to Flora when the Cougars squeeze those running lanes. Jake Clifton takes over for Glasker after recording a sack at TCU. If Flora’s runs stall, Raynor has to release the ball sooner.
Cody Jackson rescued Jaylen Raynor on third-and-six Saturday. His 43-yard catch set up a field goal, part of a six-catch, 160-yard afternoon that included a 46-yard touchdown from Flora. Jackson adjusted his routes when Raynor scrambled; BYU’s edge rushers should make him do that again. Tausili Akana and Nusi Taumoepeau each sacked TCU’s Jaden Craig. Roehl ought to call shorter throws to Jackson early, sparing Raynor some third-and-long. Iowa State has converted a paltry 20 of 58 third downs this season. Raynor has thrown four interceptions in three games, too; Kelly Poppinga’s defenders can turn a hurried throw into a cheap scoring chance.
Bear Bachmeier gets to run at defenders who just let Michael Hawkins gain 149 yards Saturday. Aaron Roderick called quarterback draws to finish a 72-yard touchdown drive at TCU. Iowa State’s linebackers have to tackle him before he reaches their safeties. But Martin’s replacements gave Roderick little help. With Sione Moa also out, Preston Rex and Journee Tonga scraped together 49 yards on 15 carries. They have to gain something early against a defense allowing opponents to convert just 30.3% of third downs through five games.
Iowa State vs. BYU pick, best bet
Bachmeier has to throw better, too. Rain, inaccurate passes and false starts spoiled BYU’s possessions at TCU, where he gained a dreadful 62 yards on 24 attempts. Legend Glasker can punish Iowa State deeper. The freshman caught five passes for 131 yards at Colorado State. Jesse Bobbit needs safety help over Glasker, especially with Drew Surges out. Bring that defender closer to tackle Bachmeier, and Glasker can run behind him. Defensive linemen Caden Crawford and Ka’Mori Moore also miss Friday; Iowa State has managed only three sacks in four FBS games.
I expect Bachmeier to throw two touchdowns and run for another. Rex and Tonga still have to help finish drives; Matthias Dunn should kick two field goals when they stall. Raynor should find Jackson for one touchdown, with Flora running for another. Akana can force punts when Flora stalls; Kyle Konrardy should finish two other drives. He has made seven of eight field-goal attempts this season. I’ll take the 10.5 on a seven-point Cougar win. Roll Clones, though.
Best bet: Iowa State +10.5 (-112).
Projected score: BYU 27, Iowa State 20.
Best Bet: Iowa State +10.5 (-110) at BYU
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