It’s always jarring how quickly these Division Series can become an elimination game, but that’s exactly the stakes as we get ready for tonight’s action in San Diego.
After taking both contests in Milwaukee, the Brewers can head back to the NLCS for the second straight year with another win on Tuesday in Game 3. For the Padres? It’s step one of the three-pronged plan to keep their season alive.
Can San Diego extend this thing to Wednesday? Let’s dive in make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Padres Game 3 prediction, preview
A wise baseball sage posted this on Twitter last week:
Ignore the lack of engagement. This guy just tweets for the love of the game.
Anyway, the point remains: Nick Pivetta is either about to save or ruin the Padres’ season. It’s been an interesting year for the 33-year-old. After a career-best campaign in 2025, Pivetta was limited to only eight starts in 2026. But what an eight starts they were. Across 34.2 innings, the right-hander maintained a 2.86 ERA with a 2.21 FIP. He struck out 30.0% of the batters he faced, and walked a career-low 5.7% of opponents. For a club that has been desperately searching for starting pitching all season long, San Diego getting Pivetta back from injury in September was an absolute blessing.
However, how much Craig Stammen chooses to lean on Pivetta this evening is anyone’s guess. Pivetta was limited to a mere 3.1 innings and 66 pitches in Game 2 of the Wild Card series. Even in a setting where the Padres weren’t facing elimination, Pivetta was pulled at the first sign of trouble, and the reigns were given to San Diego’s fantastic and star-studded bullpen. If I had to guess, there’s almost no scenario where that doesn’t happen again — especially coming out of an off-day on Monday.
If we’re being honest, I’d assume Dustin May is in a similar longevity situation with the Brewers. Setting aside the fact that May was not a “slam dunk” choice to start Game 3, there’s just so much length available in Milwaukee’s bullpen, and pairing the right-handed May with either Shane Drohan or Robert Gasser from the opposite-side could make a lot of strategic sense. It’s also not like May’s truly earned Pat Murphy’s trust since being acquired at the deadline from the Cardinals.
In the 29-year-old’s 10 outings with the Brewers, May’s pitched to a ghastly 5.65 ERA and a 5.06 FIP. He’s allowed 1.72 opponent home runs per nine in this span, with an 11.4% barrel rate that would be among the worst in the league if prorated over the entire season. There’s zero reason to think his leash isn’t going to be super short on Tuesday.
Remember, this is a San Diego lineup that entered the postseason red-hot. In fact, in the month of September, the Padres led the league in batting average (.281), slugging percentage (.469), wOBA (.353) and wRC+ (127). If there’s a collection of hitters that can rise up and stave off elimination against a struggling May, it’s the home team in Game 3. Milwaukee is obviously going to put up a fight — and it ranked top five in most of those aforementioned offensive categories — but I think my current lean is for this series to go to a Game 4.
Brewers vs. Padres Game 3 pick, best bet
Best Bet: Padres ML (-138)
The Padres are at home, they have the pitching advantage in Game 3, and they possessed the best lineup in baseball in the month of September by wOBA (.353) and wRC+ (127). I’m simply having a hard time seeing them swept away in the NLDS.
Strong Lean: Dustin May Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+126)
I just don’t see May lasting too long in this one. The Brewers have several length options in their bullpen and May’s struggled to a 5.65 ERA in his 10 outings since being traded to Milwaukee. Matchup is important here, too. The Padres are one of six teams that posted a strikeout rate below 20% in the second-half of the regular season.
