The Padres are staring elimination in the face, down 2-0 to the Brewers in the NLDS. A pair of back-breaking losses have sapped San Diego of its momentum heading into this series. Still, all hope is not lost. The Friars head home for Game 3, where a raucous Petco Park crowd will be supporting them. One player that loves feeding off of big moments is Fernando Tatis Jr.; can the superstar deliver another signature moment on Tuesday night?
The Padres are -143 favorites over the Brewers tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ll break down my favorite Tatis Jr. prop bet for Game 3.
Best Fernando Tatis Jr. Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Fernando Tatis Jr. 3+ Hits + Runs + RBIs (+136)
No offense in baseball has been hotter than the Padres. Since September 1st, they lead the majors in batting average (.281) and wRC+ (127). It’s a stark contrast from the beginning of the season, when this group was vastly underperforming its collective talent. Tatis Jr. has been at the center of this turnaround, looking like his old self in recent weeks. Over his last 23 games, the 27-year-old is slashing .337/.413/.652 along with eight home runs. During 64 games in the second half, he’s clobbered a whopping 20 home runs.
Tatis’ success hasn’t carried over into the postseason. Over four playoff games, he’s hitting just .176 with one home run. Still, that’s a small sample size against elite pitching. It’s worth mentioning that the All-Star is batting .316 this season at Petco Park, compared to a mark of .265 on the road.
Compared to Milwaukee’s Game 1 and 2 starters, today’s matchup doesn’t appear as difficult. Acquired in August right before the trade deadline, Dustin May hasn’t been great for the Brewers. Through ten starts with his new club, the righty owns a lackluster 5.65 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. In addition, he’s on the hook for a sky-high 1.7 HR/9 ratio during that time. May’s 44.3% hard-hit rate only ranks within the seventh percentile among qualified pitchers.
This pick is really about backing San Diego’s lineup as a whole. Keep in mind, the Friars rank 11th in barrel rate (8.0%), sixth in hard-hit rate (40.4%) and sixth in average exit velocity (89.4 MPH) on offense. That knack for hammering the ball should play well against a middling arm that gives up quality contact. Over 29 career at-bats vs. May, Tatis Jr. owns a respectable .713 OPS. Given enough opportunity, there’s reason to believe the former NL MVP finalist can stuff the stat sheet tonight.
