The playoffs roll on tonight in San Diego, where the Padres need to keep their season alive with a win. That won’t come easy against the Brewers, owners of the league’s best record. Milwaukee has taken the first two games of this NLDS series; can the Friars regain some momentum in front of their home crowd? Regardless of who comes out on top, it’ll take some stellar individual performances to make it happen.
The Padres are favorites (-138) over the Brewers on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s break down two player props worth consideration ahead of Tuesday’s Game 3 matchup.
Brewers vs. Padres Best Prop Bets Tonight for Wednesday 9/30/26
Christian Yelich 1+ Hits (-145)
Not the greatest pick from a value point of view, but bettors should feel fairly confident in Yelich tonight. Granted, the veteran hasn’t looked like his usual, consistent self. Plagued by injures, he only managed to slash .235/.315/.378 with 12 home runs and 59 RBIs during the regular season. Still, it’s fair to say that those numbers don’t reflect what the former NL MVP is truly capable of. Yelich has been better over the past few weeks, recording a hit in 11 of his previous 16 appearances. That includes a knock in each of Milwaukee’s first two postseason contests.
Batting from the left side, there’s reason to believe Yelich can extend his mini-streak tonight. The 34-year-old owns a respectable .244/.327/.395 slash line against right-handed pitching this season. To be clear, San Diego’s Nick Pivetta is no pushover. That’s without factoring in a stingy San Diego bullpen. However, this is a spot that Milwaukee’s veteran has performed well in before. Yelich has notched seven hits and two home runs over 18 career at-bats against Pivetta (.389 BA). There’s reason to believe he can do a bit of damage tonight in Game 3.
Jackson Merrill 2+ total bases (+131)
For most of the season, this Padres offense was stuck in neutral. However, the team has managed to turn things around since the start of September. During that time, they lead all of baseball with a .281 batting average and rank second with a 137 wRC+. It’s been a bit more difficult at the plate in this series, but that’s to be expected against elite Milwaukee pitching. On paper, tonight’s matchup appears far less formidable. Dustin May hasn’t been great since joining the Brewers in August. Through ten starts with his new club, the righty owns a lackluster 5.65 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Even more concerning, he’s on the hook for a 1.7 HR/9 ratio. May’s 44.3% hard-hit rate sits within just the seventh percentile among qualified pitchers.
Add it all up, and San Diego’s hitters should put together a much better performance at home. That’s especially true for left-handed batters, slashing .269/.358/.397 this season against May. Enter Jackson Merrill, one of the team’s most dangerous players at the plate. That doesn’t mean most consistent; his season has been one of peaks and valleys. Fortunately, the former NL Rookie of the Year comes into Tuesday with some momentum. Over his final 16 regular season games, Merrill was batting .379 with a whopping .667 slugging percentage. He’s kept it up in October, hitting .313 over four postseason contests. Don’t be shocked if the outfielder makes an impact tonight, whether it’s with two singles or one gargantuan blast.
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