The Milwaukee Brewers have broken San Diego Padres’ hearts in back-to-back games, and somehow, Jackson Chourio was at the center of both. In Game 1, Chourio hit a game-tying homer in the third inning and caught Ty France’s controversial fly ball off of the catwalk in the top of the ninth. Then, in Game 2, he managed a two-out, walkoff single against Padres superstar closer Mason Miller to send Milwaukee to the brink of the National League Championship Series.
Tonight, the Brewers have a chance to finish off the job when they face San Diego at Petco Park, with first pitch scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET. With a win, Milwaukee would be guaranteed a rest advantage, as the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves are tied after two games of the other NLDS.
Dustin May will take the mound for the Brewers, and the Padres will counter with Nick Pivetta.
Milwaukee is a +118 underdog for tonight’s clash at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the run total set to 7.5. San Diego is a -142 favorite on the moneyline.
Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around Chourio.
Best Jackson Chourio Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jackson Chourio 1+ RBI’s (+187)
RBI’s are largely a matter of luck, but it’s noteworthy that Chourio had 18 RBI’s in September, the third-most on the team and tied for the 15th-most in the league. Dating back to the regular season, he’s recorded an RBI in each of his last six games, driving in five over the final four games of the regular season while slashing .700/.750/1.000, and he’s followed it up with a pair of RBI’s in each of the first two games of this series. Pat Murphy changes around his batting orders fairly regularly, but the Brewers as a unit have seen the ball well as of late, leading MLB in OBP since the All-Star break and ranking second among the eight Division Series participants in that stat through the first two games of each series, so Chourio — who has a solid .794 career OPS with runners in scoring position — should have at least one opportunity to drive a batter home.
Pivetta made just eight starts this season, pitching to a 2.86 ERA, but he’s been pretty prone to hard hits, as his 10.1% barrel rate would rank in the league’s bottom quintile if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify. He also ranked in the bottom decile in that stat in both 2024 and 2025, allowing the fifth-most homers on the Senior Circuit in the former year. Pivetta throws his four-seamer and his sweeper in equal proportions against right-handed hitters, and Chourio has recorded an xSLG north of .490 against both pitches this season. Throughout his career, Pivetta has allowed an OPS 76 points higher with men on base than with the bases empty.
