Alvin Kamara or Kendre Miller: Fantasy Football Start or Sit Advice for Week 4

The Saints backfield was supposed to be simple this season. At least that’s what many assumed when the team went out and signed Travis Etienne this summer for four years at $52 million. However, as is often the case in fantasy football, the reality of the situation hasn’t been as straightforward.

Etienne saw single-digit carries in Week 1 and Week 2, then, after finally garnering 13 rushing attempts in Week 3 versus the Raiders, the former first-round pick exited the eventual loss due to a hamstring injury. That ailment currently has Etienne on the IR, opening up a void in this offense that needs to be filled.

So, who is New Orleans’ RB1 heading into its Monday Night Football matchup with the Falcons? Is Alvin Kamara or Kendre Miller the asset to own? Or does it even matter?

Let’s dive in and break down this committee.

Alvin Kamara vs. Kendre Miller

History dictates that Alvin Kamara will be the Saints’ “starting” running back in Week 4. Kamara has spent his entire 10-year career with New Orleans, making the Pro Bowl five times and twice being named to second-team All-Pro. Not surprisingly, the 31-year-old is also the Saints all-time rushing leader (7,301) and touchdown leader (87). When he retires, he’s unquestionably going to have his jersey hanging from the rafters at the Superdome; however, let’s not conflate the past with what’s tangible at the present.

The fact of the matter is that Kamara hasn’t been an effective RB for a while now. Once heralded as a dual-threat weapon for the ages, Kamara has averaged a paltry 2.8 yards per carry and 2.0 yards per reception through the opening three weeks of the season. That’s just 2.6 yards gained per touch — the lowest mark of the 84 players who have at least 20 touches dating back to the beginning of Week 1. Things were trending in this direction last season, as well. In 11 games, Kamara posted the fourth-lowest rushing success rate in the NFL among qualified backs at only 42.0%. Even worse, Kamara’s 33.3% receiving success rate ranked dead-last among all qualified skill position players. There’s inefficient, and then there’s whatever Kamara’s been doing the past two years.

Does any of that make Kendre Miller a world-beater? No. Heck, there’s a case to be made that Miller’s own struggles with injury and on-field production are the main reason why New Orleans has had to still lean on a clearly over-the-hill Kamara. With that said, Miller is healthy at the moment, and there’s absolutely no doubt that the 24-year-old has more burst in his legs than his veteran teammate. Miller’s stats aren’t all that impressive in a vacuum, yet when juxtaposed to Kamara, anyone looks decent by comparison.

The Bottom Line

Everyone always wants there to be a clear ranking of benefit after these unfortunate mid-season running back injuries. The hope is that there’s an obvious handcuff option that can be picked up off the waiver wire and save someone’s fantasy season.

Sadly, this doesn’t present to me as one of those cases. Remember that the Saints dressed four RBs last week against Las Vegas: Travis Etienne, Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller and CJ Donaldson. All four saw double-digit offensive snaps, with Donaldson even seeing a goal line carry in the first quarter — well before Etienne’s injury. No matter how much we’d all like this situation to be streamlined in Etienne’s absence, the most likely outcome is a three-headed time-share, with Kamara and Miller seeing 10-12 touches and the big-bodied rookie in Donaldson stealing red zone work.

If pressed, Kendre Miller is the best option in season long formats with some fringe FLEX appeal, but let’s not forget that tonight presents a stunningly terrible matchup. Atlanta has conceded the fewest FPTS per contest to opposing running backs through three weeks, while also giving up a mere 47.7 opponent rushing yards per game — easily the best mark in the league.

In Showdown, Kamara is a stay-away at a $7,000, while Miller is, again, slightly more appealing at just $5,000.