Atlanta started the season with two straight losses, as the offense could only muster 16 total points with fewer than 300 yards in both contests. Michael Penix returned for Week 3 and….Voila! 498 yards of offense as the Falcons trounced the Green Bay Packers, 35-14 to get into the win column. Now, Green Bay looks and smells like literal rotten swiss cheese, but it’s encouraging that Penix looks more than competent dishing the ball to an impressive stable of playmakers.
Bijan Robinson is one of the best dual-threat running backs in the league and the 66 total carries leads the NFL. He’s racked up 349 yards and two touchdowns while catching 13 of 16 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown. After being nerfed to six catches for 80 yards in the first two games, Drake London exploded for nine catches and 194 yards last week.
Defensively, Atlanta has been one of the best against the run, allowing a league-low 143 yards and only 2.8 yards per carry. The 14.46 expected points are second-best. The -11.8 expected points in pass defense are middle of the pack, but the unit has limited quarterbacks to a 57.7 completion percentage, but six touchdowns have been thrown.
The Falcons blitz at the lowest rate in the league but are 11th in pressure rate. The five sacks, though, are tied for the sixth-lowest while only two turnovers have been racked up.
New Orleans has had no issues on offense, as Kellen Moore and Tyler Shough have orchestrated one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. And that’s with first-round rookie Jordyn Tyson injured. The Saints are first in pass attempts, third in yards and third in touchdowns. Shough has gone 91-of-132 (68.9%) for 917 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions. The 48 first downs are tops in the league.
The rushing attack has been average, ranking 16th in both attempts and yards while being 13th in touchdowns and 21st in yards per carry.
Defensively, the Saints are 15th in pressure rate while blitzing at the 12th-highest rate. The unit has racked up seven sacks with three turnovers. Both the pass and rush defenses are mired in the bottom third of the league. The -5.91 expected points are seventh-worst in run defense while the -22.25 expected points are 11th-worst for pass defense.
Opponents are completing 67 percent of passes, the 11th-highest, while allowing six passing touchdowns with only one interception. On the ground, the unit has allowed 4.7 yards per carry with 386 yards and four touchdowns.
Both offenses should find success in this one on the fast track in New Orleans.
DraftKings Sportsbook has NO -1.5 over ATL with the total at 47.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (ATL @ NO)
Falcons vs. Saints DraftKings Showdown Captain’s Picks
Tyler Shough ($14,400 CP): Shough leads the NFL with 91 completions while the Falcons rush defense has been one of the best. In addition, the Saints rushing attack is hobbled with Travis Etienne Jr. out and the duo of Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller not being especially dynamic. The path of least resistance is through the air for New Orleans while the Saints don’t wanna go marching, but prefer to fly to the end zone. Shough has put up at least 22 FPTS in all three games this season and has a little rushing equity, totaling 67 yards and a touchdown.
Best UTIL Plays for Falcons vs. Saints
Juwan Johnson ($7,400): Johnson played 62% of the snaps last week and was second on the team with eight targets, two of those in the red zone. Noah Fant played 57% of the snaps, garnered four targets (two red zone) and finished with three receptions for 33 yards and two touchdowns. He’s questionable for this one, though, due to an abdominal injury. Even if Fant plays, Johnson will be a focal point of the offense, but if Fant is out, then the access to a ceiling increases.
Chris Olave ($10,800): Olave is Shough’s boo, garnered 36 targets (most in the NFL) on the season with double-digits in every contest. He’s finished with 22.7, 22.6 and 31.2 FPTS. If I think Shough is going to have a big game, then it’s almost assuredly that Olave has one as well.
Bryce Lance ($1,800): Lance only has eight targets on the season, but he’s played 69%, 79% and 72% of the snaps this season. Half the battle is being on the field, and Lance is winning that one. Targets are earned and will be tough to get because Olave and Johnson are the hogs, but since I think this game will tilt towards the air for New Orleans in this one, Lance could get a few opportunities to make a play. Whether he does or not is unknown, but the price is worth it for the upside.
Falcons vs. Saints DFS Fades
Alvin Kamara ($7,000): Kamara is a shell of himself and has put up 7.2 and 5.1 FPTS this season. He only received one target and one red zone opportunity last week. In addition, Kendre Miller will likely split the running back duties with Kamara. As mentioned earlier, I like the Saints to tilt more towards the downfield passing game in this one.
Falcons vs. Saints Showdown Game Script
I really like the Saints passing stack attack in this one. At home in primetime, I think the defensive players fly around like a band of banshees.
Final Score: Saints 34, Falcons 19
