Bijan Robinson Touchdown Scoring Pick for Falcons vs. Saints

Since infamously blowing a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI, the Atlanta Falcons have fallen upon hard times, not winning the NFC South since despite its overall mediocrity across that span. In fact, Atlanta hasn’t even made the playoffs or had a winning record since 2017, the second-longest active streak of losing seasons in the league.

Despite a 1-2 start in which the Falcons have looked like one of the worst offenses in football, they have a chance to move into a tie for the early division lead with the Carolina Panthers tonight, when they travel to face the New Orleans Saints in an 8:15 p.m. ET Monday Night Football showdown.

The centerpiece of Atlanta’s offense tonight will surely be Bijan Robinson, as he’s been throughout his four-year NFL career. The 24-year-old is arguably the most talented active player never to have appeared in the postseason, and given his strong start to the 2026 season, the Falcons are surely hoping that Robinson will be able to will them to a division title.

Atlanta is a 1.5-point underdog for tonight’s game at DraftKings Sportsbook (+102 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 47.5. New Orleans is -122 on the Moneyline.

Below, I’ll break down one of Robinson’s touchdown-scoring props for tonight’s nationally-televised battle.

Bijan Robinson First Team TD Scorer Prop Bet vs. Saints

Bijan Robinson First ATL Falcons TD Scorer (+155)

Robinson wasted no time getting his 2026 season started in Week 1, taking a screen pass from third-string quarterback Cooper Rush 23 yards to the house on just the Falcons’ third possession for their first (and only) score of the game. Atlanta didn’t score a touchdown in the Week 2 loss to the Panthers, but in Week 3, Robinson again found the end zone in the first quarter, punching it in from three yards away. It was the Falcons’ first of four touchdowns in that game, set up by Robinson’s 55-yard run two plays prior.

Quite simply, Robinson is one of the best in the game. By Pro Football Focus’ grades, he trails only Kenneth Walker III, Bhayshul Tuten, and Jahmyr Gibbs, and he’s managed the eighth-most yards per attempt over expectation. Atlanta’s offense runs through Robinson; he leads the league in touches per game, and among all players with 50 or more touches, he trails only Walker and Jaylen Warren in yards per touch. Robinson has attempted a league-high 91.7% of the Falcons’ rushes within the opponent’s 20-yard line, accounting for 11 of the 13 snaps Atlanta has taken inside the red zone. He’s basically the only Falcon who’s had a chance to score, and to boot, he’s also among the league leaders in 20-plus-yard runs, so he’s the most likely to break off a long score.

The Saints have been pretty exploitable by opposing running backs. They’ve allowed four rushing touchdowns to the position in three games, tied for the third-most in football, and they’ve also given up the seventh-most yards per game and yards per attempt. New Orleans also ranks seventh-to-last by PFF’s run defense grades. Although the Saints haven’t been great through the air through the air, either, allowing the 12th-most adjusted yards per attempt, their aggressive, blitz-heavy scheme incentivizes quick-hitters, such as runs or screen passes to Robinson. New Orleans has faced some tough running backs this season (Gibbs, Derrick Henry, and Ashton Jeanty), allowing both Gibbs and Henry to record their team’s first score.