Bulldogs phenom Kamario Taylor ripped South Carolina for four touchdown passes, hauling Mississippi State out of a 16-0 hole and all the way into a 41-34 win. I’m loving the aggression Jeff Lebby has unleashed, and how niftily it juxtaposes with Taylor’s yes-ma’am kindness with the media. Eli Drinkwitz brings another unbeaten team to Starkville, but Missouri needed its defense and return unit to drag it past Troy just last week. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Missouri Tigers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Mississippi State vs. Missouri prediction, preview
DaMarion Fowlkes bolted 68 yards for a punt-return touchdown against Troy, and they also scored two touchdowns off defensive takeaways. QB Austin Simmons threw for only 91 yards. Ninety-one! Troy hogged possession for 37:23 while the Tigers squeezed in 49 offensive plays. I’ll applaud the return blocking and those takeaways all evening; the offense still has to earn its own first downs.
Jamal Roberts certainly earned his carries, pounding out 128 yards on 22 attempts with Ahmad Hardy still unavailable. Mississippi State presents a nastier appointment: third among 68 Power Four teams in opponent-adjusted rushing defense. Missouri’s offensive line ranks 99th nationally in run push. I expect the Bulldogs to squeeze Roberts’s running lanes and send Simmons into far more demanding passing downs, where he’s not at his best.
State benefited from turnovers in Columbia, too. At Minnesota, however, Lebby’s offense finished its first four possessions with touchdowns and rushed for 252 yards. That’s the sustained scoring I’m buying. Missouri allows only 2.5 yards per carry, so Fluff Bothwell will have to scrap harder here. Taylor’s ability to rescue third-and-long is an absolute keystone to this ticket.
Missouri vs. Mississippi State pick, best bet
Simmons has offensive weapons who can make laying points a frustrating sweat. Cayden Lee and Donovan Olugbode have combined for 515 yards, and State’s adjusted pass defense ranks a weak 47th/68th. I see Missouri at 24 points. Let those two rip off some catches, and let the good times roll. My larger concern is whether Roberts can keep his offense from hiccuping between passing downs and punts.
I’m laying 5.5 at -110, projecting Mississippi State 34-24. I’m backing Taylor to finish more drives. His spectacular touchdown to Marquis Johnson at South Carolina came after he evaded pressure on third-and-long. He just looks too good right now.
Best bet: Mississippi State -5.5 (-110)
Projected score: Mississippi State 34, Missouri 24
Best Bet: Mississippi State -5.5 (-110) at Missouri
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