Prediction, pick for Luis Hernandez vs. Sedriques Dumas at UFC Vegas 121

Originally, Sedriques Dumas was scheduled to face Mickey Gall at tonight’s UFC Fight Night. But after Gall couldn’t fight, one of the UFC’s latest signees, Luis Hernandez, stepped up. 11 days ago, Luis Hernandez earned a UFC contract after scoring a second-round submission over Hugo Guillon on Dana White’s Contender Series. 

Check out my best bet for Luis Hernandez vs. Sedriques Dumas at tonight’s UFC Fight Night below.

Luis Hernandez to Win in Rounds 1-2 (-170)

Hernandez is now an active UFC fighter and a Miami-Dade Sheriff’s Office deputy, which is impressive. Recently, we have seen multiple fighters earn a contract on DWCS and quickly make their UFC debut shortly after. Hernandez enters this fight with an undefeated 8-0 record and has a 100 percent finish rate. He will take on Dumas, who is 10-5 with six finishes. Dumas also earned a contract on DWCS, but he has gone through ups and downs so far in the UFC. Since March 2024, Dumas is 2-4-1 in his last seven fights. Dumas’ last victory came over two years ago when he beat Denis Tiuliulin in August 2024. 

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Hernandez is the favorite at -238 with Dumas as a +195 underdog. The over/under is 1.5 rounds, and the under is -250. Dumas has a six-inch reach advantage (79″ vs. 73″) while being five inches taller (6’2″ vs. 5’9″) than Hernandez. 

Including his appearance on DWCS, Dumas is averaging 1.97 significant strikes per minute and 1.30 takedowns per 15 minutes. Dumas has been too passive recently to keep up with the high-level prospects he’s faced. Although Hernandez took this fight on short notice, he has momentum and has tremendous finishing ability. Since Hernandez is a -238 favorite, I’m taking him to win in Rounds 1-2 at -170. Seven of his eight MMA wins have come in the first or second round. Hernandez’s aggressiveness and fast pace will likely disrupt Dumas’ rhythm and make it hard for him to get going.