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Prediction, pick for Melissa Amaya vs. Tina Black at UFC Vegas 121

Prediction, pick for Melissa Amaya vs. Tina Black at UFC Vegas 121

Published:

By: Cooper Albers

Season 34 of The Ultimate Fighter culminates on Saturday night, as Melissa Amaya faces Tina Black in the women’s strawweight finale at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos inside the Meta APEX.

Both parties are coming from Team Cormier. Black (15–4) stopped Natalia Alves via third-round TKO before besting Delphine Benouaich by unanimous decision to reach the final. Meanwhile, Amaya (8–0) secured a first-round submission victory over Anna Melisano, then a second-round TKO against Gigi Canuto.

Black enters as a heavy -205 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Amaya is a +170 underdog, with the fight total set at O/U 2.5 rounds.

Melissa Amaya vs. Tina Black Fight Preview

Melissa Amaya

  • 8–0 Overall
  • 3–0 (T)KO
  • 2–0 SUB

The undefeated Melissa Amaya wasn’t letting anyone get in her way of reaching the TUF 34 final. “La Mamba,” 31,  finished both of her opponents this season, showcasing her indomitable spirit and physical grit along the way. Facing Gigi Canuto in the semifinal, Amaya survived multiple early submission attempts before taking control and securing the second-round TKO. With a dynamic skill set, she’ll look to capture the TUF crown by any means necessary.

Tina Black

  • 15–4 Overall
  • 5–0 (T)KO
  • 1–0 SUB

Valesca Machado, better known as Tina Black, will have experience on her side on Saturday night. The former Dana White’s Contender Series contestant has competed in established promotions such as Invicta FC and Uriah Faber’s A1 Combat, and she’s certainly impressed in her return to the Meta APEX. Black, 30, has flashed fight-ending power and strong defensive grappling; she proved especially difficult to take down against Delphine Benouaich, who went on to win her Octagon debut this month by submission. Black will look to put it all together for three more rounds, just as the odds suggest. 

Melissa Amaya vs. Tina Black Pick, Best Bet

While Tina Black may not be undefeated, she arrives for the TUF 34 finale with a far more impressive track record than Melissa Amaya. Her unmatched experience is seemingly what’s making her such a heavy favorite, and it should give her a clear edge on Saturday night. That said, Amaya’s undeniable resilience makes her increasingly difficult to put away. If Black captures the TUF crown, it will likely come by decision. 

Best Bet: Tina Black by Decision (-115)

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Cooper is a Brooklyn-based writer and editor who joined DraftKings in September 2025. A recent graduate of Jay-Z’s Roc Nation School of Sports at Long Island University, he served as the chief sports editor of the campus newspaper and the lead sideline reporter for the men’s basketball team. His previous stops include amNewYork and the New York Post.
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