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Prediction, pick for Montel Jackson vs. Ricky Simon at UFC Vegas 121

Prediction, pick for Montel Jackson vs. Ricky Simon at UFC Vegas 121

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By: Ryan Wohl

An intriguing bout on tonight’s UFC Fight Night Prelims is a Bantamweight fight between Montel Jackson and Ricky Simon. The Prelims begin at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+. Both fighters are 34, with Jackson at 15-4 and Simon at 22-7-1. Tonight’s UFC Fight Night is taking place at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, and is headlined by Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos. 

Check out my best bet for Montel Jackson vs. Ricky Simon at tonight’s UFC Fight Night below.

Montel Jackson to Win by Decision (+150)

Montel Jackson is coming off back-to-back split decision victories over Raoni Barcelos and Deiveson Figueiredo. Before that, Jackson won six consecutive bouts, with his latest victory coming against Daniel Marcos in May 2025. Simon has had a draw and a loss in his previous two fights, and last got a win in June 2025. In the UFC, Simon’s best stretch came from 2020 to 2022, where he won five straight fights. But since then, Simon has gone 2-4-1 in his previous six contests. 

In this contest on DraftKings Sportsbook, Jackson is the favorite at -230 with Simon as a +190 underdog. This fight has an over/under of 2.5 rounds, with the over at -210 and the under at +160. On paper, Jackson and Simon have a big size difference. Jackson stands four inches taller (5’10” vs. 5’6″) with a six-inch edge in standing reach (75″ vs. 69″).

Simon lands 3.03 significant strikes per minute, compared to Jackson’s 3.02. Jackson has the better striking accuracy (52% vs. 42%) and absorbs fewer significant strikes per minute (1.40 vs. 3.90). Both fighters are skilled on the ground, but Simon lands more takedowns per 15 minutes (4.49 vs. 2.71). With Jackson’s 67 percent takedown defense, he should be able to neutralize some of Simon’s attempts. If Jackson stays aggressive and keeps Simon from closing the distance on the feet, he should be able to succeed. Three of Jackson’s previous five wins and five of his last eight have come by decision. That is why I’m taking Jackson at +150 to win this fight on the judges’ scorecards.

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Ryan is a University of Arizona graduate and Philadelphia native. Since 2024, he has been a writer for DraftKings Network, primarily covering combat sports. He is a big Philly sports fan and loves to collect sneakers, as well.
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