Time’s a flat circle. See Rust Cohle from True Detective twirling a flattened beer can through his fingers in the fluorescent-lit 2005 interrogation room. Jayden Daniels’ same elbow. Jaxson Dart’s obliterated knee. Caleb Williams’s terrifying and emotional hamstring pull. We’ve seen all this before, somewhere, in some iteration. And while it felt like last week may have been the week of the replacement WR2/3, this is most certainly the week—both in fantasy and in the NFL—of the backup quarterback. What sort of structural integrity, in terms of production floor, can they possibly provide for our fantasy assets this week? Not to mention the mid-round draft capital so many of us snagged (Jonathan Brooks, MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Godwin, Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed, Mike Washington, etc.) whose value has seemingly evaporated for one injurious reason or another. Bloodbath after bloodbath.
Happy Fantasy Friday once more—but, I mean, is it really? It’s at least a deliciously autumnal one, on the brink of the season’s first nor’easter here in Maine. Football season, indeed. I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 3 edition. It’s the sort of week where I’m hoping this series functions, for so many of us, as a true lifeline for a potential victory come the conclusion of Monday Night Football.
For the newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five must-start running backs for fantasy football Week 3. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
- Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 3
- Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 3
- Top five fantasy football players to stash ahead of NFL Week 3
- Top five fantasy defenses to start for NFL Week 3
All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.
Fantasy football Week 3: Top five running backs to start
Chuba Hubbard, CAR (vs. Browns)
Much to the dismay of the offseason hypetrain, Chuba Hubbard basically immediately reprised his valuable role as the Panthers’ RB1 before Jonathon Brooks went on IR this week. Through two games, Hubbard’s opportunities have generated an excellent 16.8 XFP/G, tenth among RBs, while his healthy 50% route% also ranks tenth. Golly do I just love participation alongside Bryce Young’s more aggressive passing offense. Carolina can keep Hubbard in the play when it throws, and Brooks’ absence removes a potential challenge to work Hubbard already owned.
The Browns have surrendered the fourth-highest rushing success rate and sixth-highest explosive-run rate, with their tenth-highest missed-tackle rate contributing to the damage. Hubbard, on the other hand? Well, he leads the league in rushing success rate among backs averaging at least ten attempts per game. It’s not complicated, here.
His comparatively modest 13.5 touches per game have nonetheless yielded a useful 75.5 scrimmage YPG. I’d happily start him at that workload, particularly with catches supplementing his efficient rushing. With Tetairoa McMillan occupying an important part of Young’s passing game and Hubbard retaining access to catches, I have Hubbard near the top of the RB2 tier. Cleveland’s difficulty finishing tackles makes a larger yardage afternoon deliciously possible.
Omarion Hampton, LAC (vs. Bills)
Los Angeles has continued concentrating its rushing work in Omarion Hampton through an uneven opening fortnight. Against Las Vegas, he handled a dominant 82% of backfield rushes, and his opportunity value climbed from a meager 6.5 XFP in the opener to a substantial 18.3. Twenty-three carries will do that, I suppose. I’m encouraged by the volume, obviously, but he fumbled the ball away at a critical time. He’ll need to announce his return this week in a big way.
The receiving work requires considerably less enthusiasm. Hampton’s limited 27.3% RTE% through two games sits well below last season’s juicy 47.6%. Worse still: RB2 Keaton Mitchell matched his route participation against the Raiders. I’m counting on carries here; Buffalo’s generous receiving concessions to RBs mean little unless Hampton starts running more routes.
Justin Herbert has a plausible way to help him anyway. The Bills have allowed the fourth-highest passing SR, and a healthier Ladd McConkey would improve Herbert’s options for sustaining drives. Longer possessions would increase Hampton’s chances to contribute near the goal line, where a rushing TD or a goal-line texas route remains the likeliest ways to creep his production toward its potential ceiling. Buffalo’s reasonably firm 1.70 adjusted YBC/ATT dampens an extravagantly clear-skies rushing forecast, even for a bruiser who creates on his own like Hampton. He’ll break some tackles, though. I’d start Hampton as an RB2 on the strength of his volume and the lack of options on the team elsewhere. This game could be his receiving breakout.
Kyren Williams, LAR (at DEN)
Blake Corum now takes entire drives away from Kyren Williams, and Sean McVay intends to keep it that way. Both backs carried 12 times against the Giants. It was Williams, however, who retained the more useful passing role, however, doubling Corum’s RTE% (42% to 21%) while Matthew Stafford continued directing an offense capable of supporting both runners. You and I both know Kyren’s always good for that Texas route inside the ten. I expect his receiving usage to keep him at RB2 levels.
The Rams’ blocking is on another level right now. Los Angeles’s line has a magnificent 90.1 PFF run-blocking grade on the season thus far, the league’s best by more than nine points, and Williams has been treated with an excellent 5.5 YPC on his opening 23 attempts. I’m willing to accept fewer carries when the line creates such favorable conditions for the runners.
Denver’s stringent 1.58 adjusted YBC/ATT allowance suggests immediate rushing space will put them big boys up front to work, but Broncos defenders have missed a league-worst 20 tackles against the run. Opponents have generated a damaging +0.089 EPA/RUSH, the second-highest allowance in football.
The divided workload is there to stay, and we shouldn’t ever think Kyren’s on his way back to feature workload. His receiving packages, and the quality of the Rams’ rushing execution, both, nevertheless leave him comfortably in my RB2 lineup, with top-12 upside.
Javonte Williams, DAL (vs. Ravens)
Javonte Williams has already accumulated 51 receiving yards after managing a paltry 137 across al 16 games last season. His sluggish 3.0 YPC deserves all the criticism it’s getting. Dak Prescott, however, has manufactured another use for Williams when the running game stall. Against Baltimore, fantasy managers might find themselves the beneficiaries of the passing game involvement.
The Ravens have allowed only 66 RB rushing YPG since Week 10 of last season. That’s a significant stretch of obdurate play, and it suggests Williams will have to wait another week for his ground breakout. Dallas wil attack through the air instead. Their league-leading +12.3% PROE screams that preference, although CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens will naturally claim much of Prescott’s attention away from Javonte on the checkdown.
Williams still owns a valuable portion of a more valuable offense, though. His excellent 0.35 XFP per team play ranks tenth among all players, while his sizable 44% share of Dallas’ RZ touches supplies scoring opportunities beyond the receiving yardage. Those are plenty good reasons, you ask me, to roll Williams right back out there after Week 2’s unproductive afternoon against Washington.
I’m starting him as an RB2. The receiving improvement intrigues me, and I want to see how it plays out this week.
Quinshon Judkins, CLE (vs. CAR)
For all the work Cleveland has given Quinshon Judkins, he has done dismayingly little to finish the job after initial contact. A feeble 1.42 YAC/ATT and an uninspiring 8% MTF just are not gonna cut it for QJ. The elusive running we all got so used to at Ole Miss/OSU hasn’t been there this year. Carolina does offer a specific reason to revisit him: its defenders have conceded the second-most YAC/ATT and third-highest RUSH SR through two weeks.
We’re not hanging our hats just on poor tackling, but we sure don’t hate it against Quinshon’s volume. Judkins has averaged a useful 15.5 touches with a substantial 68.3% SNAP%, and his respectable 13.5% TGT% suggests Deshaun Watson looks his way occasionally. Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion have attracted the larger first-read shares, now, but they’ll also be attracting secondaries more heavily. Judkins on the checkdown might become something we see more here in the coming weeks.
Cleveland has also lined him up behind the QB for every redzone carry this season. Admittedly, it’s just three, but it’s still 100% of the scoring chances. If the Browns get down there, Judkins gets the ball. Watson still has to sustain the drives that create them.
I’d start Judkins in an RB2 spot against this front. His workload offers repeated chances to turn Carolina’s missed tackles into a more productive afternoon.
