Time’s a flat circle. See Rust Cohle from True Detective twirling a flattened beer can through his fingers in the fluorescent-lit 2005 interrogation room. Jayden Daniels’ same elbow. Jaxson Dart’s obliterated knee. Caleb Williams’s terrifying and emotional hamstring pull. We’ve seen all this before, somewhere, in some iteration. And while it felt like last week may have been the week of the replacement WR2/3, this is most certainly the week—both in fantasy and in the NFL—of the backup quarterback. What sort of structural integrity, in terms of production floor, can they possibly provide for our fantasy assets this week? Not to mention the mid-round draft capital so many of us snagged (Jonathan Brooks, MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Godwin, Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed, Mike Washington, etc.) whose value has seemingly evaporated for one injurious reason or another. Bloodbath after bloodbath.
Happy Fantasy Friday once more—but, I mean, is it really? It’s at least a deliciously autumnal one, on the brink of the season’s first nor’easter here in Maine. Football season, indeed. I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 3 edition. It’s the sort of week where I’m hoping this series functions, for so many of us, as a true lifeline for a potential victory come the conclusion of Monday Night Football.
For the newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five must-start wide receivers for fantasy football Week 3. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
- Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 3
- Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 3 (TK)
- Top five fantasy football players to stash ahead of NFL Week 3 (TK)
- Top five fantasy defenses to start for NFL Week 3
Fantasy football Week 3: Top five wide receivers to start
DeVonta Smith, PHI (vs. Bears)
Jalen Hurts kept looking for DeVonta Smith in Nashville, and Philadelphia had little reason to scheme his reads elsewhere. Smith drew 13 targets and finished with an emphatic 10/117/1 receiving line against the Titans last Week. After Dallas Goedert departed with an injury, his already substantial involvement swelled to a remarkable 37.9% TGT%. Hurts also sent a hefty 188 air yards his way. I’m interested in how much of this new Mannion offense Smith can absorb when Philadelphia needs him to do everything: be ordinary, and catch the deep ball.
Chicago’s defense is a matchup that should have Jalen Hurts chucking it deep. The Bears’ outside coverage has conceded a league-worst 12.21 YPT, despite Minnesota’s rain-soaked passing game offering little resistance last week. The Bears also play man at the third-highest frequency (43.3%), perfect for an elite manbeater like Slim, who has earned a healthy 26% TPRR against man since last season.
The emergence of Dontayvion Wicks as the Eagles’ WR2 only emphasizes Jalen Hurts’ weapons around Smith; Wicks makes it so defense can’t totally key in on Smith as the only deep-ball option. With Goedert nursing an MCL sprain, though, I’d expect the passing hierarchy to remain decidedly favorable for Philadelphia’s best receiver. I want Smith in my lineup, with all kinds of WR1 expectations this week.
Tetairoa McMillan, CAR (vs. Browns)
Against Atlanta’s single-high coverage, Bryce Young looked toward Tetairoa McMillan on a robust 27% of his routes, and McMillan rewarded those opportunities with a productive 2.18 YPRR. McMillan is set up for another huge afternoon against the Cleveland Browns’ secondary, whose league-high 78.1% single-high rate makes last week’s allocation particularly relevant.
He has earned substantial opportunities beyond that one coverage sample, too. Through two games, McMillan’s commanded an encouraging 27.3% first-read TGT%, with five deep targets and three RZ targets. Young has consequently trusted McMillan with throws that can (and have!) change(d) fantasy afternoons. If there’s a knock on this ascending Panthers’ passing game, it’s that Bryce Young’s troubling accuracy remains part of the bargain: among qualifying passers, he owns the second-lowest catchable-TGT rate.
Cleveland’s secondary isn’t great at all. Their middling Press% ranks 22nd, and, to boot, their perimeter coverage has surrendered the tenth-most YPTgt thus far this campaign. Young will have a much better chance to complete those demanding throws than he would against a disruptive front. Jalen Coker’s ankle and Xavier Legette’s knee kept both receivers out of Thursday’s practice, but Coker’s expected to play, at the very least, as of this afternoon’s news. Even so, I’m rolling McMillan out everywhere this week with glee. He’s, at the very least, a strong WR2. He’s a single-high beater, and another excellent afternoon against that coverage could mean WR1 numbers.
Ladd McConkey, LAC (at Bills)
Ladd McConkey practiced fully Wednesday—welcome progress for a receiver whose health—or, really, lack there of—has complicated an otherwise excellent efficiency profile. He has averaged a sparkling 3.08 YPRR through two games, yet his meager 11.1% TGT% against Las Vegas reflected how little Justin Herbert found him. A snap-count-dictated 67.7% RTE% foretold that quiet afternoon. The Chargers are playing terribly with a particularly unimpressive roster, and Herbert needs McConkey out there for the passing game to have any hope.
Against slot receivers, the Bills have allowed the sixth-most YPT and eighth-most FP/TGT. I’ll bet Herbert keeps testing that inside coverage, especially with Quentin Johnston struggling outside; his dreadful 0.49 YPRR trails McConkey’s by an extraordinary margin. The two have produced dramatically different returns, and Herbert came as close as he ever has to shading QJ in a presser this week. That’s saying something.
Oronde Gadsden’s enjoying a bit of a by-necessity resurgence as an excited Bolts pass-catcher, and will command underneath targets away from McConkey. Still, Conk’s elite per-route production profile makes a full projected workload in a shootout worth pursuing in a WR2 spot. I’d start him on that improving practice trajectory, with one important distinction: another report of restricted snaps would change my recommendation. His ribs need to permit the receiving work, too.
Garrett Wilson, NYJ (at Lions)
My darling GW5. Please stay healthy! Wilson’s enjoying a resurgent campaign, and continues separating from defenders at an elite clip. Adonai Mitchell, however, has made the Jets’ target distribution more competitive. It’s all encouraging. Wilson’s exceptional 0.179 ASS ranks sixth among WRs, and Geno Smith’s been chucking it to the tune of an impressive 82% catchable-throw rate this season. After the quarterback difficulties that complicated Wilson’s earlier seasons, an accurate passer finding an open receiver is, like, Elysium for Wilson’s fantasy hopes.
And now they get the shootout with Detroit. The Lions have surrendered the eighth-highest passing SR and 11th-most EPA/DB despite ranking second in Press%. Their rush has disrupted quarterbacks, sure, but their decimated secondary has still conceded productive throw after explosive throw after volcanic play. Geno has handled the blitz particularly well through two games, ranking fourth in YPA and fifth in passing success rate against it.
Shockingly, AD Mitchell owns a slightly richer opportunity profile (16.4 XFP/G versus Wilson’s substantial 15.4). But I assume it’ll be Wilson on the business end of most all important throws. Wilson remains a firm WR2 for me, with his excellent separation offering a credible path into the week’s top 12.
George Pickens, DAL (vs. Ravens)
George Pickens has needed two games to collect 68 receiving yards, a bafflingly-low season-long total so far. He matched or exceeded 68 yards in 12 of 17 games last season. I understand the impatience, particularly after CeeDee Lamb dismantled Washington’s secondary even in garbage time. Dak Prescott nevertheless targeted Pickens eight times in that game, a substantial 26% TGT%, and I’m reluctant to poo-poo that involvement just because the box score flattened out to a tepid six catches and 40 yards.
The Ravens have played Cover 3 and Cover 4 on a combined 52% of snaps; against those looks since last season, Pickens has averaged an excellent 2.86 YPRR with a strong 26% TPRR across 253 routes. He has an established production profile in this Cowboys offense against these looks, and done considerably more with them than his current production suggests.
His early zone separation has been pretty disappointing, so he’s still working off some rust from the summer. Prescott’s willingness to throw still supports the recommendation. Dallas leads the league with a wild +12.3% passing rate over expected, so we know they can sustain two WR1 fantasy scores in one game. I’m keeping Pickens ranked as a WR2. Dismiss the infuriating start. We just need to hope Pickens isn’t secretly half-measuring it because he’s pissed he didn’t get paid this summer.
