The Green Bay Packers opened the season with two road games and literally got blitzed in the opener, as Brian Flores smashed the button close to 80% of the time. Jordan Love finished with 387 passing yards, while Christian Watson caught six passes for 147 yards and two touchdowns. But Love was sacked four times, threw an interception and lost a fumble as the Minnesota Vikings secured a dominant 39-22 win.
The Packers defense was fine, racking up three sacks and an interception. But the Vikings dink-and-dunked with Carson Wentz on offense while the ground game carried 34 times for 107 yards and two touchdowns. The Vikings won the time-of-possession battle by five minutes.
Green Bay responded with a 20-17 overtime win in Week 2 against the New York Jets, but the script flipped as the offense stalled and the defense couldn’t get off the field. New York won the time-of-possession battle by 11 minutes while racking up five more first downs. Geno Smith went 27-for-41 for 247 yards and a touchdown, while Love finished 16-for-29 for 145 yards and two touchdowns.
The one constant over two games has been the run defense, which has allowed only 2.9 yards per carry. The 11.48 expected points contributed is the NFL’s fifth-best mark so far. Speaking of rushing attacks, the Packers’ run game has been putrid, totaling 66 and 63 yards across Weeks 1 and 2. With no Josh Jacobs, it looks like a three-headed mite with MarShawn Lloyd, Kaleb Johnson, and Chris Brooks scampering around.
Green Bay’s pass defense has been another story, as the -19.49 expected points rank 21st. That said, Green Bay ranks sixth in pressure rate and 11th in blitz rate.
Atlanta went into Pittsburgh and played respectably in Week 1, losing 20-13. Then the Falcons got demolished in their home opener to the Carolina Panthers, 34-3. I take back what I said in the first sentence — Pittsburgh is bad. The Panthers may have something this season, but it’s tough to gauge the Falcons on those two games because Cooper Rush was the starting quarterback.
Michael Penix Jr. is returning for this one, and that should be a massive upgrade, but there’s tons of uncertainty. It’s been a while since he started an NFL game, and he’s coming off an injury. How will the rapport be with his receivers? Who am I kidding? Did you watch Atlanta’s first two games with Rush under center?!
As with the Packers, the Falcons’ run defense has been excellent. The unit has also allowed only 2.9 yards per rush, and its 12.72 expected points are the fourth-most in the NFL. The 43 rush attempts, though, are the third-fewest. Carolina only rushed 22 times in Week 2 despite leading 20-3 at halftime. I guess the word is out that the path of least resistance is through the air.
That lines up well for the Packers, who are struggling to find an identity on the ground and will likely put the offensive onus on Love.
Atlanta is ninth in pressure rate but has racked up only four sacks. The Falcons blitz at the third-lowest rate, though, a huge difference from how Green Bay approaches things.
The X-factor in this game may very well be the Packers’ offensive line. The unit wasn’t highly rated coming into the season, but after losing their right tackle in Week 2, PFF now ranks the line dead last.
Green Bay enters as a 5.5-point home favorite with -250 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Atlanta is a +205 underdog, with the game total set at O/U 42.5 points.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (ATL at GB)
Captain’s Picks
Jordan Love ($15,000 CP): It is tough to pass on Bijan Robinson here, especially since he can get it done in a variety of ways. But I like Love here. The Packers’ running game is a huge question mark, while the Falcons have been stout against the run so far this season. I worry about the Packers’ offensive line, but I think the points will come from Love’s arm. “From the arm of Love” makes a good bumper sticker.
UTIL Plays
Skyy Moore ($2,400): Moore played 6% of the snaps in Week 1, but saw an increase to 36% in Week 2 due to the Jayden Reed injury. In Week 1, Reed played 57% of the snaps. Moore hasn’t done much in his five-year career and was around seven yards per target while playing with Patrick Mahomes. That said, he’s cheap, has two career rushing touchdowns, and got a red-zone look in Week 2.
Kyle Pitts Sr. ($6,600): Through two games, Pitts has one reception on four targets. His dances and prayers have been answered, though, as Michael Penix Jr. will return to action. In nine games with Penix under center last season, Pitts caught 38 of 53 targets for 375 yards and a touchdown.
Matthew Golden ($7,800): Christian Watson leads the team with 19 targets and has been the better fantasy player, putting up 35.7 and 14.1 FPTS. That said, Golden has garnered a healthy 18 targets himself, and it seems like only a matter of time before he puts up a big game. His average yards per target is a strong 8.5 through two games, and he’s received three red-zone looks. Watson will likely be more owned, so Golden could provide leverage against those lineups.
Fades
Bijan Robinson ($11,800): Am I completely fading Robinson? Absolutely not; you should build lineups with him. He is just too good and can score in multiple ways. That said, he is very expensive, and the story I’m telling here is that his production comes mainly from the rushing game. Sure, Robinson is a big part of the Falcons’ passing game, but I’d rather leverage Pitts and Drake London off him. We play in a game with salary constraints.
Outcome
I’m not expecting a barn burner here, and the total reflects that. I mentioned how stout both run defenses have been, and I’m working under that impression. If this game turns into a shootout, I’ll roster the aerial pieces.
