Falcons at Packers NFL Player Prop Bets and Picks for Thursday Night Football

The Atlanta Falcons will face off with the Green Bay Packers to kick off the Week 3 slate on Thursday Night Football. Both sides are in desperate need of improved performance and a win after underwhelming starts to the year.

The Falcons enter with an 0-2 record and were most recently dismantled by their NFC South rival Carolina Panthers. Michael Penix Jr. will be making his 2026 debut and get the start under center for Atlanta, looking to provide a pulse to the stagnant offense. The Green Bay Packers enter with a 1-1 record, but they fell to their NFC North rival Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 and narrowly defeated the New York Jets in a 20-17 matchup last week.

Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Packers enter as 4.5-point favorites with -258 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Falcons hold +210 odds to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 42.5 points.

But there are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond backing a side or total. Let’s take a look at my top three favorite player props for the Week 3 Thursday Night Football matchup.

Falcons at Packers NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football

Michael Penix Jr. to Throw an Interception (-106)

It has been far from an ideal start to Michael Penix Jr.’s NFL career. The Falcons selected the Heisman trophy runner-up with the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. After largely sitting behind Kirk Cousins in his rookie season, Penix Jr. made nine starts last year before his season was forced to end early due to a torn ACL. He remained sidelined for the opening two games of the season as he continued on his recovery progression, but he will be thrown to the fire in Week 3 after the Falcons have generated just 247 total passing yards through the first two weeks.

Penix Jr. has an NFL-caliber arm and his raw skill set will be refreshing compared to what has been seen thus far this season for the Falcons. But he still has his flaws and will be shaking off some rust after last stepping on an NFL field on Nov. 16. The Washington product has made 12 career starts and thrown six interceptions thus far in his career. 

This is a get-right spot for the Packers, and I expect them to play with the lead throughout. This will force the Falcons to attack through the air at a higher rate, and oftentimes leads to quarterbacks being willing to make riskier throws. Green Bay also forced an interception on Kyler Murray before he left the game due to injury in Week 1, while Carson Wentz and Geno Smith have each generated turnover-worthy plays against the Packers. The Packers have a strong overall defense, and it takes just one slip-up for Penix Jr. to be punished. With this being his first NFL action in close to a year, expect the Falcons’ starter to have at least one mistake and cough up an interception in his 2026 debut.

Kyle Pitts Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

One player who will be especially thrilled by the quarterback change is Kyle Pitts. The 25-year-old has always been a player whose talent has outshone his production, but it is still too early in his career to give up on him. Pitts burst onto the scene as a rookie, recording 1,026 yards through the air and earning All-Pro honors in the process. But he was limited to 667 receiving yards or fewer in each of the next three next seasons, before taking some steps toward getting back on track with 928 yards and a career-high five touchdowns last year. 

Penix Jr. was a key part of this, as Pitts averaged 41.7 receiving yards per game when he was under center. He recorded 50 or more yards in four of the nine games. While this is still lower than the 54.6 yards per game he averaged on the season, it is well above what he has shown this year and where the prop line has been established. Through the opening two games of this season, Pitts has tallied just one reception on four targets for 15 total yards.

But expect this to change with the quarterback swap and matchup with this Packers defense. Green Bay allowed 58 receiving yards to the Vikings’ tight ends in Week 1, and the Jets’ tight ends combined for four receptions for 23 yards last week. Pitts is an even higher caliber of talent, and Atlanta will be eager to take advantage of this vulnerable spot in the defense. In addition, expect a clear effort to be made to make Penix Jr. comfortable by allowing him to lean on the tight end at a high rate in short yardage situations and allowing him to make plays. The bar is low for what improved quarterback play will look like for the Falcons, and expect Pitts to be among the biggest beneficiaries with over 35.5 receiving yards in his first game back with Penix.

MarShawn Lloyd Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

On the other side of the matchup, expect the game script to favor the Packers keeping the ball on the ground and being deliberate in their attack. The outlook for the Green Bay rushing attack is still not fully clear. Josh Jacobs remains on the Commissioner’s Exempt List with no indications he will be returning anytime soon. It has been a running back by committee approach with MarShawn Lloyd, Kaleb Johnson and Chris Brooks each seeing carries thus far. 

Lloyd is currently headlining the production with 19 carries for 57 yards through the opening two games. He tallied 13 carries for 37 yards in the season-opener before being limited to six carries for 20 yards last week. Lloyd did add a pair of receptions after being held without a catch in the opener. Looking across the rest of the Packers’ running back room, Brooks has generated 40 yards on 11 rush attempts while Johnson has tallied 32 rushing yards on eight carries.

The Falcons have done a nice job stopping the run thus far, with just 126 total rushing yards allowed through the opening two games. But they have only faced 43 combined rush attempts, and I expect Green Bay to throw a more significant volume of attempts in this matchup. There is room for each of the running backs to produce, and Lloyd is currently leading the backfield with 48.7% of the rush attempts. The 25.5-yard prop line is low enough that there is still value in backing him, and he has been just shy of breaking free for a major gain a few times this season. His longest rush of the season is currently just 12 yards, but with one proper break he can exceed this rushing total in just one carry. Expect Green Bay to lean on its rushing attack heavily as it looks to bleed out the clock, and for 25.5 rushing yards to be a comfortable bar given the volume of opportunities.