We’re already into Week 3 of the college football season, which means we’re beginning to see the hierarchy of the sport settle. On Saturday evening, the No. 1 Texas Longhorns look to ride the momentum of last week’s incredible comeback as they host the UTSA Roadrunners in Austin. The new No. 1 is looking like a title contender, but the visitors aren’t a team that tends to roll over, so this could be a closer matchup than some people may think.
Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for UTSA vs. Texas in Week 3 of the 2026 college football season.
UTSA vs. Texas prediction, preview
The Roadrunners have been a very respectable program under Jeff Traylor, but life in the American Conference hasn’t been as easy as things were in Conference USA. They swapped over in 2023 and are yet to win double-digit games since, going 7-6 in each of the last two seasons. However, they are looking quite good through the first two outings of 2026.
UTSA opened the year with a 45-16 drubbing of UTRGV, an up-and-coming FCS program. That win was expected given the caliber of competition, but the Roadrunners still put on a show with 527 yards of offense behind an excellent game from quarterback Owen McCown. Last week, they were threatened significantly more by Texas State and trailed 17-7 at the half, but a late rally saw them score 14 points in the fourth quarter to come back and take the win, 31-26. In that one, UTSA was outgained 398 to 481, giving up 289 yards on the ground. After the defense was gashed time and again, there’s plenty of worry heading into this week. For what it’s worth, the offense has shown its upside, though, so there’s hope the unit can hang around for a bit.
Obviously, Texas has a massive advantage in this contest. They’re at home for the third straight week and are the top team in the latest AP Poll, a deserved spot after a historic second-half comeback. The big question is whether they’ll trounce UTSA; not whether the Longhorns will win.
It’s convenient that Texas faced the same Texas State team in the opener that pushed UTSA to the brink. In that game, the Longhorns blew the doors off with a 59-7 victory that saw them rack up 516 yards of total offense with 360 passing yards, averaging 7.4 yards per play on the day. They went 11-for-15 on third down in that one, largely just steamrolling the opposing defense. Now, Texas’ battle was much harder last week, but the program rallied from a 17-point halftime deficit with 21 unanswered points in the final frame – a heroic comeback against a team of Ohio State’s caliber. Arch Manning didn’t play a great first half, but he was dealing in the second and the defense came up with key stops time and again – UT held the Buckeyes to just three points following the half. Now, the Longhorns bring that momentum into Week 3.
UTSA vs. Texas pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Texas enters as a 30.5-point favorite. UTSA holds +1800 odds of an outright upset. The game total sits at 58.5 combined points between these teams.
By all means, this should be a blowout. If we’re going off the transitive property, UTSA struggled some against Texas State, a team that was absolutely dismantled by Texas. However, there’s enough here to make me believe the Roadrunners can cover that 30.5-point spread.
For starters, the Longhorns have started both of their games slow. The first quarter against Texas State in Week 1 was uninspiring at best and the entire first half of last week’s game was filled with miscues and mistakes that led to the deficit in the first place. Even in a small sample, that early execution is becoming something of a trend for this team. If it happens on Saturday, it’s possible that the Roadrunners will get on the board early. While UTSA certainly won’t hang around all day and should go down by multiple scores by the half, we’ve seen Traylor’s offenses look great in the past. His teams are typically able to move the ball – it won’t be an easy task against Texas, though – and McCown is a very experienced quarterback in his third year as the starter here. He’s completed 72.5% of his passes for 489 yards and four touchdowns without an interception so far this year, and he’s generally been very reliable over his time at UTSA.
Will the Roadrunners win this game? Nope, but they have the steady presence under center and the quality coaching needed to capitalize on a sluggish start out of the gate from the Longhorns. I think UTSA should cover this wide spread.
Best Bet: UTSA +30.5 (-112)
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