The Dallas Stars visit the Washington Capitals on Tuesday night, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET at Capital One Arena. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Washington is a -112 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 5.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Capitals vs. Stars prediction and best bet.
Capitals vs. Stars Odds
| Market | Dallas Stars | Washington Capitals |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -108 | -112 |
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+230) | +1.5 (-285) |
| Total | Over 5.5 (-125) | Under 5.5 (+105) |
Capitals vs. Stars Betting Preview
Washington Capitals Outlook
Washington has been far more comfortable at home, going 6-3-0 compared to 2-2-0 on the road. Its 3.01 5v5 xGoals per 60 rank second in the NHL, and Alex Tuch has been the club’s finisher, scoring 10 goals so far, double the total of any other Capital. Dylan Strome’s nine assists lead the team, too.
The Capitals are coming off a 5-1 home loss to Minnesota on Sunday, though, and their power play has been a big weakness at 17.6%, 22nd in the league. This will be a tough unit to lean on against Dallas’ elite penalty kill, to say the least. Logan Thompson is the confirmed starter between the pipes after posting a 5-4-0 record with an .898 SV% and 2.93 GAA, and his +3.5 GSAx and +0.63% SV% above expected rank 14th and 19th, respectively, among 74 goalies.
Dallas Stars Outlook
Dallas has allowed a league-low 22.3 shots per game, and its 2.14 goals against per game are also the fewest in the NHL. It has given up just 26 high-danger shots, tied for the second-fewest, and its penalty kill has been incredible at 93.6%, good for first in the NHL. A whopping nine of the Stars’ 14 opponents have finished with two goals or fewer.
I’d expect Jake Oettinger to draw his 12th start after going 7-3-1 with a .921 SV%, 1.63 GAA and three shutouts. His +9.8 GSAx ranks third among 74 goalies, and his +1.84% SV% above expected ranks eighth. The Stars’ primary concern is the offense, where they rank 26th in goals per game (2.64). Mikko Rantanen has carried the load with seven goals and 17 points, while the club has played the entire season so far without Matt Duchene, who is expected to miss about three months after core surgery.
Capitals vs. Stars Prediction and Best Bet
Washington’s 5v5 attack is scary, but Dallas has been the best defensive team in hockey, and the Stars allowed one goal total in their two meetings with the Capitals last season, winning 1-0 and 4-1. Tuch has provided Washington with some offensive juice, but with Oettinger the likely starter and Washington’s power play unlikely to take advantage, I like the Capitals to stay at two goals or fewer at plus money.
Best Bet: Capitals Under 2.5 Team Total Goals (+125)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
