Bills vs. Lions NFL DFS Value Picks for Thursday Night Football

The Bills are hosting the Lions for Week 2’s edition of Thursday Night Football. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Buffalo is favored by 4.5 points and this game carries a total of 54.5 points, which is the highest total of the NFL season thus far.

DraftKings is offering some huge Showdown contests for this matchup and below, I have featured two of my favorite NFL DFS value plays to consider for this Showdown slate.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (DET at BUF)

TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills ($10,200 CPT, $6,800 FLEX)

Kincaid is way underpriced and a must-play for this Showdown slate. The tight end was awesome in Week 1, catching 5-of-6 targets for 130 yards vs. the Texans, resulting in 21 FPTS. Houston ranked second in YPA allowed last season (5.7), so this matchup was no cakewalk.

Kincaid saw a target on 27% of his routes and he ran a route on 69% of his team’s dropbacks, which is a massive jump from the 37% route rate he saw last season. Kincaid garnered two targets over 20 yards and hauled in both of those deep looks. The 26-year-old saw a 15.8 aDOT and 5.91 YPPR, both of which ranked first among all the tight ends who saw 5+ targets in Week 1.

Kincaid’s expanded route rate correlates with the Bills being under new HC Joe Brady, after moving on from Sean McDermott this offseason. Furthermore, Kincaid finally being healthy again is a huge factor. Per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler: “multiple people with the team told me Kincaid is healthier than he was this time last year and is on no snap restrictions.”

It seems like the larger role Kincaid saw in Week 1 is the new norm for the tight end and if that is the case, the sky is the limit for this elite talent. Last season, Kincaid averaged 0.44 FPTS per snap, which easily ranked first among all tight ends. Ranking second was Trey McBride at 0.31, who was the No.1 scoring tight end for fantasy.

After torching a stout Texans defense last week, Kincaid is now facing a Lions defense that yielded the 12th-most yards per pass last season (6.7) and gave up 30 points to the Saints in Week 1. In this contest, New Orleans tight end Juwan Johnson finished with a 3/54/1 receiving line and 14.4 FPTS.

Presenting a season-high 54.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook, this Bills vs. Lions matchup is going to produce some huge fantasy scores and Kincaid could go nuts in this setting, possibly besting his 21-FPTS outing from Week 1.

WR Isaac TeSlaa, Detroit Lions ($5,700 CPT, $3,800 FLEX)

TeSlaa didn’t bring in his one target last week vs. the Saints, but there were some positive takeaways from this outing. The second-year wideout ran a route on 80% of his team’s dropbacks after handling a low 44% route rate in his rookie season.

This was the Lions’ first game under new OC Drew Petzing and the team’s first game without receiver Kalif Raymond, after the veteran departed for the Bears this offseason.

With Raymond out of the picture, TeSlaa is Detroit’s No. 3 receiver and he should handle a high route rate all season. TeSlaa’s ability to earn targets has been lackluster so far in his career, seeing a target on just 8% of his routes, but he still had some solid outings to close out last season, scoring double-digit FPTS in four of his final six games. TeSlaa found the paydirt in all of these performances and he finished with six touchdowns in his rookie season.

TeSlaa has a nose for the end zone and him scoring a touchdown in this expected shootout vs. the Bills is definitely possible. He could supply double-digit FPTS and he should come with little ownership after going without a catch in Week 1.