A couple of likely postseason teams square off on Friday night when the Houston Astros head to Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Rays. One of these division leaders is certainly stronger than the other, but even still, this should be a nice matchup at Tropicana Field. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Astros vs. Rays game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Rays prediction, preview
There’s a clear advantage for the Rays tonight, who are still protecting their spot as the top club in the American League. They’re 87-59 with a +56 run differential, and when playing at home, they’re an AL-best 47-25. The Astros are an underdog, but they have claimed control of the AL West at 75-72 despite a -40 differential of their own. They’re 38-34 on the road, but it’s worth noting they’re 29-20 against opposing clubs above the .500 mark.
Houston are the visitors this evening and send RHP Miguel Ullola (0-0) to the mound as an opener. He’s tossed five games in relief this season with just 7.0 IP and allowed three earned runs while amassing an 0.87 WHIP and 10 strikeouts. Of course, the sample size is very small for the club’s No. 11 prospect, but he has looked quite good in relief with an elevated 37.0% K% and a 3.7% BB%, the latter of which feels slightly more sustainable.
For Tampa Bay, RHP Drew Rasmussen (14-5) is the starter tonight. He carries a low 2.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP into this game amidst a very impressive season, also striking out 156 hitters over 153.1 IP. He holds a 26.1% K% and an elite 4.5% BB%, also generating an 82nd-percentile chase rate with better-than-average exit velocity allowed to opposing batters. He’s arguably been one of the most underrated arms in baseball, so this won’t be an easy matchup for Houston’s bats.
By measure of wRC+, these are both top-10 offenses over the second half of the season. The Astros slot in at 10th in the stat despite ranking 22nd in total runs scored (213) over this span, though they’re 14th in OPS (.717) and eighth in ISO (.164). The Rays, meanwhile, are seventh in wRC+ and total runs scored (237), 10th in OPS (.729) and 21st in ISO (.147) over this same sample size.
Astros vs. Rays pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rays as a -174 Moneyline favorite at home this evening, while the Astros are a +144 underdog on the road. The total is set at 7.5 combined runs.
It’s tough not to favor Tampa Bay tonight given the club’s starting pitcher. Rasmussen has been very hot over the second half with a 2.17 ERA and an 0.83 WHIP, both of which are even better than his season-long numbers. Over the last 30 days, the Rays are also hitting .264, the third-best average in the MLB – and over their last two series, they’ve scored six or more runs in four-of-six games. In a home game against an opponent that’s turning to its bullpen early, it’s tough not to favor them on the run line.
