Middle Tennessee quarterback Roman Gagliano was terrific against Delaware. He hit tight end Koraun Perdue for an 80-yard touchdown, then, trailing by four late, drove the Blue Raiders 93 yards and found wideout Neo Clifton for the winner. He threw three touchdowns that night, two to Clifton. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and the Kennesaw State Owls.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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MTSU vs. Kennesaw State prediction, preview
Kennesaw just let Missouri State throw for 303 yards, and the Owls’ defenders have managed only seven sacks through seven games. Behind blockers who have allowed seven in the same span, Gagliano should have time to find Clifton and wideout Cam Lacy, who caught six passes for 68 yards at FIU. Coach Derek Mason should call passes on early downs, particularly when Kennesaw’s front makes running back Terrence Brown fight for modest gains.
Brown hammered FIU for 158 yards on 18 carries. Before Liberty wore Kennesaw down for 215 rushing yards last week, though, the Owls held Jacksonville State to 74 and Missouri State to 118. Mason may have to be patient with Brown. FIU stopped Middle Tennessee twice from the one, including Antonio Martin Jr. on fourth down. The Blue Raiders have converted a miserable 20 of 79 third downs through seven games; they’ve been squandering perfectly manageable downs, too. Kicker Dominic Bourgeois made all four field goals at FIU, including two from at least 50 yards. He has made ten of 11 this season. Mason has needed every bit of that accuracy lately.
Kennesaw quarterback Rickie Collins found wideout Brayden Munroe seven times for 159 yards against Jacksonville State, including a 70-yard catch. Receiver Dylan Gary caught ten for 135 at Missouri State, where the Owls finished three touchdown drives covering at least 74 yards despite rushing for only 77. They can travel the field when their running game stalls. Against a Middle Tennessee secondary that let Delaware throw for 321 yards, I expect Munroe and Gary to make this close. The Blue Raiders also have to account for Collins as a runner after he gained 61 rushing yards against Jacksonville State.
Kennesaw State vs. MTSU pick, best bet
Kennesaw coach Jerry Mack still lists Collins first on the published depth chart, but backup quarterback Landon Varnes replaced him against Liberty after two interceptions. Collins scraped out 124 passing yards on 26 attempts. Varnes threw for 111 on 15, largely after Liberty had established control, and finished his last possession with a field goal. Mack praised his execution and could give him more work Wednesday. Neither quarterback took Kennesaw into the end zone, though, and Varnes has yet to lead the Owls through a full game. Gagliano has thrown 12 touchdowns against two interceptions this season. I’m backing him to finish more possessions at Floyd Stadium, with Bourgeois still kicking well enough to settle another narrow game. I’ll lay the point and a half.
Best bet: Middle Tennessee -1.5 (-102).
Projected score: Middle Tennessee 24, Kennesaw State 20.
Best Bet: MTSU -1.5 (+100) vs. Kennesaw State
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