Through the first few games of the season, the Houston Rockets are looking like a potential title contender. At 4-0, they’re unbeaten and now head into Milwaukee for a matchup against the Bucks, who are just starting their rebuild after shipping out a franchise icon this offseason.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Rockets vs. Bucks matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rockets vs. Bucks prediction, preview
The early returns on these Rockets are highly encouraging. Thus far, they’re 4-0 and have beaten the Mavericks and Spurs before downing the Hawks in back-to-back games. They currently rank fifth in NETRTG at +9.8, ranking third in OFFRTG and 15th in DEFRTG – clearly, this offense seems to be taking a step forward. Houston averages 120.8 PPG and has largely benefitted from having floor general Fred VanVleet back in the mix for three of the games, who has helped keep the halfcourt attack on schedule while averaging 7.0 assists per game. It’s worth noting that leading scorer Alperen Sengun (back) is out tonight while backup center Steven Adams (soleus) has also been ruled out. Either Clint Capela will get heavy run, or Houston will go a little smaller at the five by shifting Jabari Smith Jr. over. The latter has produced 16.8 points and 6.8 rebounds with a 40.9% 3P% alongside two other star forwards. Kevin Durant averages 23.5 PPG with hyper-efficient scoring and Amen Thompson brings 17.0 points, 9.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game along with his elite defense. There’s still more than enough talent to weather tonight’s injuries, especially since the Rockets rank fifth or better in FG% (50.9%) and 3P% (39.0%).
The Bucks practically have zero expectations this season after shipping Giannis Antetokounmpo to the Heat this offseason. Now, the goal is simply to play young talent and see what they have, though it should be noted they don’t own their own first-round pick outright until 2030. Year one under head coach Taylor Jenkins may not be pretty, and at the moment, they’re 1-3 with the lone win coming over the Pacers on Monday. Milwaukee ranks 22nd in NETRTG at -5.7, scoring 116.8 PPG but allowing 122.2 PPG to opponents on the other end. Tyler Herro leads the team in scoring and assists with 23.5 points and 5.8 dimes per game, shooting an efficient 43.3% from deep to start his tenure with the Bucks. His former Heat teammates Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware and Kasparas Jakucionis have also made a quick impact, too. Jaquez is averaging 17.5 points with 8.0 rebounds, Ware is producing 13.3 points and 8.5 boards, while Jakucionis is pitching in 10.3 PPG. Ryan Rollins has also contributed 13.5 points and 4.3 assists per game, another somewhat bright spot. It’s also worth noting that Milwaukee currently ranks second in rebounds per game (52.0) and seventh in REB% (52.2%), so the unit could see some extra possessions against this undermanned Rockets center rotation.
Rockets vs. Bucks pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as an 8.5-point road favorite tonight with -340 odds on the Moneyline. The Bucks are a +270 underdog to win outright with the total set at 226.5 combined points.
This could be a somewhat interesting game due to the absence of Sengun and Adams, but that’s moreso because we aren’t entirely sure what Houston will do at the center spot in the absence of its two big men. A smaller lineup with Smith Jr. at the five did work for stretches in the past and he spaces the floor better than either of the two incumbents, and for what it’s worth, Capela was not very good last season when he saw minutes. How that spot shakes out is by far the most intriguing storyline since even with those two absences and Marcus Smart (forearm) also out, the Rockets are still a much better team than Milwaukee. The Bucks’ defense has been one of the NBA’s worst so far, and while Houston’s offense takes a hit without Sengun, there are still enough pieces here to believe the visitors will cover the spread. The Rockets have been one of the most impressive teams in the league through the first few games and weathered multiple injuries against a much better squad with a win over the Spurs without VanVleet and Adams last week. Against a rebuilder, they should handle business.
