The Cavs have started out 2-1 to begin the season, but they haven’t exactly done it in a convincing way. After dropping the season opener against the Sixers, they’ve picked up narrow wins over Brooklyn and Minnesota, failing to cover the spread in all three games. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie (foot), Tristan Vukčević (hip) and Jamir Watkins (ACL), while No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa (ankle) has finally been cleared to go. Cleveland’s only injury-related absence is Nae’Qwan Tomlin (back).
They’ll host the 2-2 Wizards tonight, tipping off at 7 PM ET. Cleveland swept last season’s four meetings against Washington, but the Wizards look considerably different with Trae Young and Anthony Davis active. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Cavaliers favored by 10.5 points, with -395 Moneyline odds compared to Washington’s +310. The total is set at 239.5 points.
Let’s break down tonight’s matchup.
Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers preview, prediction
Washington has split its first four games, picking up impressive wins over Milwaukee (128-116) and Chicago (124-120) before falling to Charlotte 110-103 on Monday. Davis led the Wizards with 29 points and 10 rebounds, while Young contributed 22 points and 10 assists. These two have been productive to open the season, averaging 22.8 PPG and 22.3 PPG, respectively, with Young also leading the league at 11.0 APG. It’s likely that Young will be in contention to lead the league in assists this season, given his current workload; he’s averaging 36.8 MPG.
The Wizards are averaging 114.3 PPG while allowing 114.5, a considerable improvement over last season’s 112.9 PPG scored and 124.9 allowed. We’re not surprised to see that defense tighten up a bit with a healthy Davis slotted in at PF. Between Davis and Alex Sarr, this front court has the length to give anybody fits in the restricted area. Kyshawn George has also emerged as a reliable offensive contributor with 17.8 PPG; he had a good season last year, but it’s nice to see that Davis’ presence hasn’t reduced his role on offense. But it’s also too early to declare George’s role as a permanent fixture on this team, as Dybantsa is returning tonight and will certainly take away shots from George, who plays the same position.
Cleveland enters Wednesday having won consecutive games against Brooklyn (125-121) and Minnesota (127-125), with the latter going into OT. Star guard Donovan Mitchell has been excellent, averaging 26.7 PPG on 50.9% shooting, including 47.4% from beyond the arc. Evan Mobley is supplying 18.7 PPG and 9.3 RPG, while James Harden is contributing 15.7 PPG and 7.0 APG. We’re still searching for the long-awaited blowup season from Evan Mobley, who’s been an elite defensive player but has somehow not evolved his game offensively. He is taking a career-high 4.0 3PA and knocking them down at way too high of a rate (58.3%), but there’s another level here that Mobley can unlock. He’s still only 25 and entering his prime, but the Cavs would love to see a 20+ PPG season out of Mobley sooner rather than later.
Despite the star power, the Cavaliers haven’t been particularly efficient offensively. Their 108.2 offensive rating ranks 19th, while they’re turning the ball over 18.7 times per game, the third-most in the league. Cleveland is averaging 119.3 PPG but also allowing 120.0. The Cavaliers are also scheduled to visit Atlanta on Thursday, making this the first game of a back-to-back.
Wizards at Cavaliers pick, best bet
Cleveland is clearly the more established team, but asking the Cavaliers to win by double digits against this version of Washington feels excessive. The Wizards haven’t lost by more than 10 points this season, and their combination of veteran scoring, playmaking, and frontcourt size gives them a legitimate opportunity to keep this competitive.
The frontcourt matchup will be particularly important. Mobley and Jarrett Allen form one of the league’s best defensive combinations, but Davis and Alex Sarr have the size and versatility to challenge them directly. Davis can operate from the midrange or attack inside, while Sarr provides another seven-footer capable of finishing around the basket. Washington also has Deandre Ayton available off the bench, giving Brian Keefe additional size to work with.
Young’s playmaking should help Washington navigate Cleveland’s tough interior defense. He’s averaging 11.0 APG through four games and has recorded at least nine assists in each contest. His ability to manipulate pick-and-roll coverage and find Davis or Sarr around the basket could be critical, especially if Cleveland commits additional defenders to prevent him from creating his own offense.
There’s also reason to question Cleveland’s ability to consistently pull away from opponents. The Cavaliers have been outscored by two points overall through three games, and their 18.7 turnovers per contest have contributed to some uneven performances. Washington’s offensive rating of 110.7 is actually higher than Cleveland’s 108.2, although neither figure should be treated as particularly meaningful after such a small sample. The Cavaliers will also need Harden to wake up. The former MVP is only putting up 15.7 PPG and 7 APG on 35.1% shooting from the field; I’m not convinced he’s washed up, but maybe we’re starting to see some small signs of regression.
The biggest concern for Washington is its perimeter shooting. The Wizards are converting just 29.4% of their threes, ranking 27th in the NBA. Cleveland, meanwhile, is shooting 36.6% from deep and making 13.7 threes per game compared to Washington’s 9.2. That disparity could become problematic if the Cavaliers successfully limit Davis and Sarr inside. Champagnie’s absence also hurts Washington’s rebounding depth after the Wizards were outrebounded 54-41 against Charlotte.
Still, the Cavaliers haven’t demonstrated the consistency needed to justify laying 10.5 points. Washington has enough offensive talent to stay within striking distance, particularly with AJ Dybantsa’s return.
