Major League Baseball has 11 games on the scoreboard for this Labor Day, as new series get started all across the country. With games spread throughout the day, baseball is on all day to help celebrate the long weekend. If you’re looking to celebrate Labor Day with some fireworks from some home run props, some strong options stand out based on matchup, environment, and current form. For this Monday, my top home run props are from Manny Machado, Rafael Devers and Elly De La Cruz.
It should be a great Monday to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | Padres | Machado has 3 barrels in his last 2 games and is 10-for-24 (.417) with a .292 ISO, a .509 wOBA and a 14.3%barrel rate over his last seven games. He’s in a favorable matchup vs. homer-prone Jake Irvin. |
| Rafael Devers | Giants | Devers has 10 homers in his last 17 games with a .545 wOBA and a 25.5% barrel rate. He is also 3-for-5 with a pair of homers in his past matchups against Michael McGreevy. |
| Elly De La Cruz | Reds | Elly has gone 26-for-58 (.448) with three homers, a .519 wOBA and a 24.4% barrel rate over his last 14 games with homers in back-to-back games. He has a good matchup against Emmett Sheehan, who has allowed 20 homers in 20 starts this year. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Monday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run (+427)
Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jake Cronenworth all homered in the first inning on Sunday against Gerrit Cole and helped the Padres to a series win over the visting Yankees.
The blast was Machado’s 26th homer of the season, and it continued a nice run of recent success for the 34-year-old veteran. In his last seven games, Machado is 10-for-24 (.417) with a .292 ISO, a .509 wOBA and a 14.3%barrel rate. He is still hitting only ..221 on the season, but he is closing in on another 30-homer season. He has at least 27 homers in each of his last 10 full seasons (not counting 2020’s abbreviated year), and he could get to 30 again this year if he keeps raking like he did this weekend against New York.
Machado will be taking on Nationals’ righty Jake Irvin, who allowed 38 homers in 33 starts last season and has served up 15 homers in his 18 starts this season, including 10 long balls in his 10 road appearances. Righties like Machado have a .282 batting average and a .356 wOBA against Irvin.
With his good momentum and favorable matchup, Machado is a great play at over 4:1 odds to go yard at Petco Park on Monday.
Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+373)
While he got off to a slow start this season, Devers has found his stride over the last month for the Giants and has definitely delivered the difference-making power the team was looking for when they acquired him from the Red Sox. Devers is at 35 homers for the second straight season after hitting 10 homers in his last 17, including a pair of bleacher-reachers on Saturday.
Devers is 23-for-64 (.359) over his last 17 games with those 10 home runs, a .545 wOBA and a 25.5% barrel rate. Of his 35 homers this season, 28 have come against righties, and he’s hitting .300 this year on that side of the splits with a .422 wOBA.
He’ll be facing a righty on Monday when the Cardinals come to San Francisco and give the ball to Michael McGreevy. The 26-year-old has a decent 3.97 ERA and 4.31 FIP, but he has allowed 20 homers in 27 starts. Lefties have hit 13 of those 20 homers and have posted a .325 wOBA with a 10.7% barrel rate against him this season.
Devers has feasted in his past matchups against McGreevy, going 3-for-5 with a pair of home runs in their previous meetings. He matches up very well against McGreevy’s pitch mix, and with his current form his home run props are a solid play on Monday night in the series opener.
Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+464)
The Reds are rolling into Los Angeles to start the week with a series against the Dodgers. Cincinnati is coming off three straight series wins against the Cubs, Padres, and the Brewers, and De LA Cruz has been one of the main contributors to their recent momentum.
In his last 14 games, Elly went 26-for-58 (.448) with three homers, a .519 wOBA and a 24.4% barrel rate. He homered in each of his last two games this weekend against the Brewers and has multiple hits in four straight games and seven of his last 10 contests.
De La Cruz is locked in at the plate coming into this matchup with the Dodgers, who will start Emmett Sheehan on Monday. Sheehan had a 5.29 ERA in his 20 starts for the Dodgers this season, allowing 20 homers in 20 starts. Lefties hit 12 of those 20 homers with a .363 wOBA and a 10.7% barrel rate against Sheehan.
While this will be his first appearance against Sheehan, the switch-hitting De La Cruz has hit 14 of his 23 homers against righties like Sheehan and he has enough momentum at the top of the Reds’ lineup to be a great play at these odds on Monday night. Elly has 23 homers and 24 stolen bases, so with a strong finish he could get to a 25/25 season with his highest batting average and highest wOBA in his career.
