Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple.
With that in mind, here are my top three NRFI picks for Monday’s full slate of MLB action.
| NRFI Bet Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
| Braves at Phillies | -120 | Jesus Luzardo (92.6%) and Grant Holmes (84.6%) each rank in the top three of all Monday’s starting pitchers in NRFI rate this season, and they also rank in the top four in career NRFI rate, making this a great value prop at -110. |
| Nationals at Padres | -115 | The Padres lead the MLB in NRFI rate by a wide margin, and they’ll get Nick Pivetta back after an extended absence. He’ll face Jake Irvin, who has thrown eight scoreless first innings in his last 10 starts. |
| Blue Jays at Athletics | -145 | AL Cy Young contender Dylan Cease takes on a surging Jacob Lopez in the last game of the day. Lopez has the second-highest career NRFI rate of the probable starters on Monday, while Cease has been among the best pitchers in baseball. |
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (-120)
The Braves and Phillies start their big NL East series in Philadelphia in one of the first matchups of the day. Even though both teams have strong offenses, I like the odds for the starting pitchers on the mound to put up a couple of zeroes to start the game. Grant Holmes takes the mound for the visiting Braves against Jesus Luzardo and the Phillies.
Luzardo has an excellent 81% career NRFI rate and has delivered a scoreless first inning in 25 of his 27 starts this season for a 92.6% NRFI rate this season. That mark is the highest of all the scheduled starters on the slate, and he comes into this matchup with a two-game NRFI streak.
Holmes has the third-highest NRFI rate of all of Monday’s scheduled starters, beginning 22 of his 26 starts with a scoreless first inning. His 84.6% NRFI rate is boosted by his current 12-game NRFI streak and has raised his career mark to 81.5%.
The Braves are slightly above league average in NRFI this season, while the Phillies are slightly below, but ultimately the success of these two starters makes this NRFI prop a good value play to start the Labor Day slate with an early win.
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres (-115)
After being swept by the Dodgers in a late Sunday night game in Los Angeles, the Nationals travel down the California coast to take on the Padres in San Diego in a series that starts at 5:10 p.m. ET. Jake Irvin will start for the Nationals, while Nick Pivetta will be returning to the mound for the Padres for the first time since April 12.
Pivetta has been on the IL for most of the year with a flexor strain and elbow inflammation, which has flared up several times while he was working his way back to the MLB. He pitched three scoreless first innings in his first four starts of the year before landing on the IL, and he’s coming off a strong rehab start last week. Pivetta went 4 1/3 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts for the El Paso Chihuahuas, and he should be fired up and ready to shut down the Nationals in the first inning of his return. Even though he may not be ready for a full workload, that shouldn’t have much of an impact on this prop.
On the other side, Jake Irvin has a 66.7% NRFI rate, throwing 12 scoreless first innings in his 18 starts this season. While those numbers are a little shaky, he has converted eight of his last 10 starts. He also is in a favorable spot against the Padres, who have the highest NRFI rate in the MLB by a wide margin. While the league average is 49.7% NRFI rate this year, the Padres have a 61.3% NRFI rate, making this a good matchup to lean into this afternoon, even though the starting pitchers aren’t quite as elite as the Braves-Phillies matchup earlier in the day.
Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics (-155)
The Blue Jays are back to .500 and just one game behind the Guardians in the race for the final AL Wild Card spot. They’ll start the week in Sacramento, taking on the A’s at Sutter Health Park. Even though it’s an offense-friendly environment, the starting pitching matchup makes it a great NRFI target to close out Monday’s action.
The A’s will look to lefty Jacob Lopez, who has an 80% NRFI rate this year and an 82% NRFI rate in his career. The lefty has been very strong since rejoining the A’s rotation, allowing two runs or fewer in 10 straight starts with a 2.28 ERA and 3.53 FIP over that span. Even at home, Lopez has been very solid since reclaiming his spot in the rotation and has been one of the A’s best pitchers down the stretch.
He’ll be opposed by Dylan Cease, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season with a 2.25 ERA and 221 strikeouts in 156 1/3 innings. Cease’s NRFI numbers are actually around league average, but he has an eight-game NRFI streak on the road and his overall dominance should put him in a good spot against the A’s injury-depleted lineup.
Lopez and Cease each have strong enough form to make this a strong play, even though the odds are a little shorter than the other two NRFI plays in this post. If all three of the picks hit from this post , the parlay would deliver a tasty +463 payout.
