Every season, a collection of NFL talents burst onto the scene and drastically outperform the expectations they entered the season with. Being on the right side of a breakout fantasy football star can pave a path to winning your respective league.
However, there also is the downside to these types of breakout candidates. Sometimes the level of production form these breakout stars is not sustainable, and plenty can go wrong beyond a player’s control as the season gets rolling. Putting them in rankings they don’t truly belong in is detrimental for the player and fantasy football owner alike.
This article will look at three notable names that may have punched above their weight class in terms of production last season. Not selecting players too high is equally as crucial to maximizing your team’s ceiling. Here is a look at three players to avoid based on their current average draft position as you lock in on your full rankings.
2025 Fantasy Football Breakouts Set for Regression:
De’Von Achane – RB – Miami Dolphins
In his third season in the NFL, De’Von Achane earned his first Pro Bowl honors with the Dolphins last year. The 24-year-old rushed for 1,350 yards, tallied 488 receiving yards, and reached the end zone 12 times. From a fantasy football perspective, Achane averaged 20.9 fantasy points per game based on DraftKings scoring, which ranks 14th among all players and fifth among running backs. Heading into this year, Achane is being mocked with an average draft position of roughly the 12th overall pick. DraftKings Network lists him as the ninth-best running back in our rankings, stating:
“Achane averaged 6.01 scrimmage yards per touch and posted a 9.2% explosive-play rate last season. He generated 34.3% of Miami’s total offensive yardage. His 170 targets across two seasons lead every running back. Achane also averaged 9.5 receiving points, with 67.4% created through designed touches and checkdowns. RB9 contains nuclear weekly efficiency alongside Miami’s bottom-five scoring risk.”
However, plenty has changed around Achane following his impressive season. Mike McDaniel was fired as head coach, and deserves plenty of the credit for putting the star running back in favorable spots last year. Malik Willis is taking over the quarterback position, and frankly this is one of the least talented overall offenses in the league. Achane will be the focal point of the offensive attack, but will see a ton of defensive attention in the process. He is a big play threat that can break free for a major gain and change a matchup at any point, but over 20% of his rush attempts last season went for zero or negative yardage. Willis is also reliant on his legs as well, which could eat into his potential production. I am not entirely out on Achane, and he should be the most highly regarded member of this Dolphins’ roster from a fantasy football perspective. But based on the opportunity cost it requires to select him, he carries some significant risk beyond what it feels has been recognized. It should be viewed as just about a certainty that he Achane will take some sort of step back this season, but the biggest question is by how significant of a margin.
Drake London – WR – Atlanta Falcons
Drake London is a caliber of talent that deserves to be mentioned among the best in the league at the wide receiver position. The USC product was only on the field for 12 games last season, but pulled in 68 receptions for 919 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. This was a slight step back from the 1,271 receiving yards and nine touchdowns he recorded in 2024, but London’s per-game metrics were even better. He averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game last season, which ranked 27th among all players and sixth among wide receivers.
But it is difficult to trust the outlook for Atlanta around the star pass catcher. The Falcons still have not named a starting quarterback, with competition continuing to play out between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. The Dolphins were willing to swallow a historic dead cap hit just to get Tagovailoa off of their roster, and he is coming off a career-worst 15 interceptions last season across 14 games played. It felt like the organization was hoping the 28-year-old would earn the starting role during training camp, but he has performed terribly and just about handed the opportunity to Penix Jr. by default. This is while Penix Jr. is still fully recovering from the third ACL tear of his young career. The former eighth overall pick did not exactly shine in the opportunities last year, and he was just cleared for 11-on-11 contact on August 22nd. Both guys have some notable availability issues that will continue to be a concern this year.
There will be another opportunity for London to showcase his skill set as one of the most talented pass catchers in the coming years. But the uncertainty at the quarterback position limits his outlook in a major way for this season. All signs are pointing toward Atlanta having one of the worst offenses in the league, and I expect this to dilute London’s output. Currently being selected as roughly the 20th overall pick and WR7 in most drafts, as well as being ranked as WR8 based on DraftKings Network rankings, it feels like too many factors have to break 100% the right way for London to match the level of production his draft slot commands.
Jaxson Dart – QB – New York Giants
This season will mark the start of a new era in New York, with Jim Harbaugh taking over as head coach and starting his effort of getting the organization on the right track. The Giants finished last year with a 4-13 record, but did see some signs of life from their notable young talent. Jaxson Dart was one of the headline names in this mix, after being selected with the 25th overall pick in last year’s draft. New York brought him along slowly, but let him loose as the season progressed. Across his 12 starts, Dart completed 63.7% of his pass attempts for 2,272 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions, while adding 487 rushing yards and nine scores on the ground. The Ole Miss product finished last season ranked QB16 by producing 17.8 fantasy points per game based on DraftKings scoring.
Heading into this season, Dart is posting an average draft position of roughly 90th overall and as QB9. DraftKings Network rankings currently list him as the 11th-ranked quarterback. If you want to paint an optimistic lens, the Giants dealt with injuries last year as Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo each saw their seasons end early. However, injuries should remain a significant concern for Dart’s outlook. The Ole Miss product plays with reckless abandonment on the field, including missing two games with a concussion, and already was sent to the blue medical tent during this year’s preseason. It is essential that he learns to protect himself better, and this is not a message that has been received just yet.
But beyond this, Harbaugh has traditionally leaned on more of a run-oriented system as a head coach. With a loaded running back room, as Tyrone Tracy, Najee Harris, and Devin Singletary are each capable beyond Skattebo, expect this to be the case in New York. 40.9% of the fantasy points gained last year by Dart occurred with his legs. This can be looked at positively or negatively, but I expect these opportunities to be scaled back a bit with his long-term health in mind. There is still plenty to like about his outlook this season and beyond, but the overarching fear is of him putting himself in harms way and his season ending early. If you do prioritize Dart in your drafts, be sure to have a strong backup option behind him.
