Tonight’s UFC Fight Night sees Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat facing off in the featured bout of the Prelims. The Prelims begin at 5:00 p.m. ET and air on Paramount+. Asplund is 7-2 with six knockouts, while Pat is 6-1 with four knockouts. Both fighters in this contest are coming off a loss in their previous bout.
Check out my best bet below for Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat at tonight’s UFC Fight Night.
Steven Asplund to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (+140)
Pat suffered a majority decision loss to Thomas Petersen in April. Before that, he beat Allen Frye Jr. by unanimous decision in his UFC debut in December 2025. Asplund knocked out Sean Sharaf in his first UFC fight but followed it up with a loss to Vitor Petrino in March.
Pat is slightly taller (6’6″ vs. 6’5″) with a larger standing reach (81″ vs. 78″) than Asplund. But Asplund is the heavier fighter, as he weighed in at 266 pounds for his last fight while Pat was 250.5 pounds. Although Pat might be the more agile fighter in this bout, Asplund has the power advantage.
In this contest, Asplund is a -298 favorite with Pat being a +240 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. With both fighters combining for 10 career knockouts, this fight is -125 to end by KO/TKO/DQ. In the UFC, Asplund is landing over 10 significant strikes per minute, which is an absurd rate even though it’s a small sample size. Asplund’s last four victories have come by knockout, which is why my favorite play is taking him at +140 to win by KO/TKO/DQ. After his first career loss, Asplund came out aggressive and scored a knockout.
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