The Miami Marlins’ losing streak remained alive and extended to seven consecutive games after last night’s series opener in Houston, where the Astros snapped a losing streak of their own. Tonight, these two teams battle again with first pitch at Daikin Park scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Marlins vs. Astros game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Marlins vs. Astros prediction, preview
Last night, the Astros claimed an 8-5 win in what can only be described as a heroic effort from Yordan Alvarez, who notched two homers and another hit to complement a grand slam from Jeremy Pena that helped Houston rally from down 2-0 early. In total, the home team was still out-hit eight to nine, though.
Following that result, the Marlins dropped to seven straight losses dating back to before the break, though they remain one of the best teams in baseball overall since June 1 and are still 52-49 overall with a +16 run differential. The Stros moved to 48-54, but have a -50 differential that leaves a ton to be desired while also going 3-7 over their own last 10 outings.
Miami starts RHP Tyler Phillips, who’s 2-4 in 25 appearances this year with nine starts. He’s tossed 75.0 innings with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP and 56 strikeouts. A 17.3% K% won’t impress, nor will a 10.8% BB% and high average exit velocity. The club’s bullpen is eighth in ERA at 3.78 with a 1.22 WHIP an a 14.1% K-BB%.
Houston brings out RHP Tatsuya Imai, who’s one of the most volatile pitchers in the sport. The Japanese rookie has a 5-4 record with a 6.06 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP and 63 strikeouts across his 52.0 IP, delivering an 88th-percentile whiff rate with a 27.0% K%, though a 14.2% BB% and similarly poor exit velocity and barrel rates are problems. The bullpen backing him ranks 18th in ERA at 4.22 with a 1.34 WHIP and a 12.4% K-BB%.
As mentioned in yesterday’s article, both clubs bring very respectable offenses. The Marlins have the better overall line with a .735 OPS that falls ninth in baseball while the Astros are 14th at .726. There are significant stylistic differences, though. Houston is third in home runs (137) this season and fifth in ISO (.170) overall with a power-centric focus compared to Miami at 23rd (101) and 17th (.156). Against right-handed pitching, Houston slashes .243/.318/.417 for a .736 OPS while Miami comes in with a line of .255/.330/.410 for a .740 OPS.
Marlins vs. Astros pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as -126 Moneyline favorites at home tonight with the Marlins behind as slight plus-money underdogs at +105. The run total sits at 9.5 combined runs.
Over 9.5 combined runs feels fair for this game at even odds. Both lineups are at their best against right-handed pitching. Imai’s play has been subpar at many points this year and he’s prone to some major blow-up performances, while a 45.9% hard-hit rate is in the bottom 7% of MLB arms and the BB% is in the bottom 4%. Phillips’ ERA is certainly better, but he has an elevated WHIP and has marks below the 20th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate himself. The game is at Daikin Park, where pull hitters can excel and the Crawford Boxes let right-handed batters run wild.
All roads lead to the over.
