UPDATE: Tonight’s game between the Orioles and the Red Sox has been postponed due to inclement weather, per MassLive’s Chris Cotillo. They will instead face off in a double-header on Wednesday at 1:35 and 7:10 p.m. ET.
Between April 25 and May 10, 1946, the Boston Red Sox won 15 consecutive games, a streak unmatched in franchise history despite four World Series titles and 21 90-win seasons in the last 80. Tonight, the Red Sox have a chance to tie that mark in the middle game of a three-game home set against the Baltimore Orioles.
The potentially historic affair will begin at 7:10 p.m. ET. Kyle Bradish is set to take the mound for the Orioles, and Eduardo Rivera will open ahead of Ranger Suárez for Boston.
Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Best Bets
- Boston Red Sox Race to 3 Runs (-110): Both opener Rivera and bulk reliever Suárez are pretty good, and Suárez in particular has been excellent at limiting hard hits, which Baltimore relies on for damage. Bradish isn’t a bad pitcher, but he’s worse than the combination of Rivera and Suárez and his bullpen is worse.
- Wilyer Abreu 1+ Walks (Batter) (+140): Abreu has been on a tear throughout the Red Sox’s winning streak, and in that span, he’s walked eight times. Bradish has relatively poor control, ranking in just the 20th percentile in walk rate.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox prediction, preview
Most of the attention on potential back-door playoff pushes has rightfully surrounded the Red Sox, but Baltimore has quietly been climbing the standings as well. On July 8, the Orioles were nine games below .500, and they had just a 15.3% chance of making the playoffs. Since then, though, they went on a seven-game winning streak before losing the series opener last night, and their playoff chances have increased to 24.3%. Baltimore has had an average offense, ranking 16th in OPS, as while marquee free agency signing Pete Alonso has been as good as advertised, former first overall pick Jackson Holliday hasn’t really lived up to his hitting potential yet and Coby Mayo has been one of the worst qualified third basemen. The Orioles have also had an average pitching staff, ranking 15th in rotation ERA and 16th in bullpen ERA. They haven’t had any elite starters, with Brandon Young (3.25 ERA) the best among them, and basically member of their relief corps has an ERA between 2.50 and 4.50. Baltimore’s 49-52 record makes sense.
The Red Sox had a rough start to the season, firing Alex Cora when they were just 10-17, but since June 19, they’ve gone 19-2, climbing from a 13.9% playoff probability to 63.4%. Across that span, their bats have awoken, as they’ve posted the league’s eighth-highest OPS over the last 30 days, and they have three true offensive superstars in Willson Contreras (whose .941 OPS ranks third in the AL), Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu. Contreras, Rafaela, and Abreu have helped them overcome horrible offensive seasons from Carlos Narváez and Jarren Duran. Additionally, Boston’s pitching has been the league’s best across that span, as Sonny Gray, Connelly Early, Suárez, and Payton Tolle have been arguably the best top four in baseball and ageless closer Aroldis Chapman headlines the league’s best bullpen. Given that the Red Sox’s record is still four games worse than their run differential would suggest, this winning streak could be sustainable.
Despite tying with his teammate Shane Baz for the MLB lead in losses, Bradish has been decent this season, pitching to a 3.61 ERA and giving up two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 19 starts, including three of his last five. Advanced numbers back up his reputation as a reliable-but-unspectacular starter, as he ranks in the 60th percentile in expected ERA. While Bradish has few notable strengths — he ranks in the top third in only one Statcast category, ground ball rate — he also only has one major weakness, his tendency to issue free passes. While Boston has already struggled to get the ball in the air as is, Bradish’s lackluster control should work in the Red Sox’s favor, as they’ve drawn the fourth-fewest walks in the league. If they can chase Bradish early, they should have the advantage against the Orioles’ bullpen, especially since Tyler Wells and Yennier Cano, two of their more reliable options on paper, both pitched yesterday. The splits are mixed; Bradish has been worse on the road, but Boston has been slightly less effective at home.
While Rivera, a 23-year-old with 9.1 career innings and three earned runs, is technically the starter, he should be expected to pitch two innings before giving way to Suárez as the bulk option. Suárez, a free agency acquisition from the Philadelphia Phillies, was named an All-Star for the second time in three seasons, pitching to a 3.15 ERA across his 17 starts, and although he’s currently on the Injured List after leaving a July 5 start against the Los Angeles Angels early, his groin strain shouldn’t affect him too much. Prior to that start against the Angels, Suárez had been coming off of a spectacular June, pitching to just a 2.10 ERA across that month. Advanced stats back up his pedigree; he ranks in the 77th percentile in expected ERA and the 94th in pitching run value. In particular, the Venezuelan has been tremendous at avoiding damage, ranking in the 86th percentile or higher in each of barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate, which should be an asset against a Baltimore team that makes the hardest contact in the league. Additionally, although Suárez comparatively struggles to produce whiffs, the Orioles employ an aggressive plate approach that results in many futile swings. Like Bradish, he has mixed splits, as he’s been worse at home and Baltimore’s bats have been worse on the road.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Boston Red Sox Race to 3 Runs (-110)
Bradish is certainly capable of holding the Red Sox to fewer than three runs, but the Orioles’ mediocre bullpen might not be. Either way, Baltimore had better hope it can score three runs against the Rivera-Suárez tandem, since Boston’s relievers shut it down more often than not.
Strong Lean: Wilyer Abreu 1+ Walks (Batter) (+140)
Abreu is seeing the ball well, slashing .269/.381/.654 across the Red Sox’s winning streak, and while he’s not known for walking, he’s earned at least one free pass in seven of those 14 games, making +140 excellent value. Bradish tends to walk lefties slightly more frequently than he walks righties.
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