This Saturday is another busy day full of Major League Baseball, with 11 games in the afternoon and five under the lights. The Guardians and Pirates are ready for a doubleheader, but the potential for rain in Cleveland and several other places is definitely worth monitoring throughout the day. With so many options, though, we can avoid the weather and find some good hitting environments and matchups for today’s home run props. My top home run props for Saturday are from Ozzie Albies, Tyler Soderstrom and Colt Keith.
It should be a great afternoon to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies | Braves | Albies has been better 6-for-17 in his career against Gore with one home run and has strong home splits and splits against lefties. At these odds he brings good value. |
| Tyler Soderstrom | Athletics | Soderstrom hit his 15th homer of the year on Friday and has a 66.7% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate in his five games back from the IL. He’ll face Zack Littell, who has given up 23 homers this year, including 17 to lefties, who have a .301 ISO against him. |
| Colt Keith | Tigers | Keith has hit 3 homers in his last 9 games with a 21.4% barrel rate, and he gets a great matchup against Grayson Rodriguez, who struggles both at home and against lefties. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Ozzie Albies to Hit a Home Run (+544)
The Braves are taking on the Rangers this weekend and came out of the break with 15 runs in Friday’s win. The weather will be warm with the wind blowing out on Saturday afternoon, so it should be another good home run day at Truist Park. Since they’ll be facing lefty MacKenzie Gore, it’s a nice spot to target Albies as a value play at over +500.
Albies has hit 14 homers on the year and has raised his batting average back up to .270 to with a .170 ISO. The switch-hitter has hit six of those homers (43%) against righties in 41.5% of his at-bats. He has also had better power production at home with nine of his homers at Truist Park, including his most recent home run before the break.
Albies has typically been hitting second in the batting order, so he should get plenty of chances to go yard on Saturday. He is 6-for-17 in his career against Gore with one home run.
Gore has allowed four homers in his last three starts and is 2-6 with a 5.81 ERA on the road this season. The former National made four starts against the Braves in Atlanta, posting a 1-2 record with an ERA of 5.40 and allowing four homers in 18 1/3 innings.
Albies has a good opportunity to hit another homer on Saturday afternoon, and getting him at these long odds make him a very attractive option to start the day with in his afternoon matchup.
Tyler Soderstrom Marte to Hit a Home Run (+337)
Zack Littell was one of the starting pitchers the Nationals brought in to help fill in the gap after trading MacKenzie Gore to Texas. Littell has been one of the top pitchers to pick home run props against for the last few years, and this season, he has continued to be homer-prone. He’ll take the mound on Saturday night at homer-friendly Sutter Health Park, so several Athletics make sense to consider as an option, and Soderstrom is one of my favorite plays since he brings a solid blend of value and upside.
Soderstrom hit 25 homers last year and is up to 15 long balls this year after going yard on Friday night. He has two homers in five games since returning from injury and eight homers in his 29 games since June 1. The big lefty has a 45% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate on the year, but since coming back, he has a 66.7% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate.
He is known or being a streaky home run producer and seems to be getting ready to go on another heater. Of his 15 homers this year, nine have been at home and nine have also been against righties like Littell.
Littell has allowed 23 homers in his 19 games this season, and lefties like Soderstrom have hit 17 of those dingers with a .301 ISO, 47.1% hard-hit rate and 13.4% barrel rate in the splits against him.
On Friday, the Nationals and A’s combined for 27 runs on 30 hits with six homers. With more warm weather and the wind blowing out again on Saturday, Soderstrom and the A’s lefties should b e strong home run props to consider.
Colt Keith to Hit a Home Run (+503)
In the other late game without any weather concerns, the Tigers are in Anaheim, where the wind will be blowing out for their matchup against Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been very hittable at home, especially against lefties, and Keith has shown enough pop to be a good value at over +500.
Keith is hitting .244 with eight homers on the season, but three of those long balls have been in the last nine games.
Keith has a 21.4% barrel rate over that span, which is a huge improvement on his season average of 8% barrel rate. He has seemed on the verge of a breakthrough for a while, and maybe this is the start of a big run for the former top prospect in the second half. He didn’t start on Friday but did enter as a pinch hitter.
The 24-year-old should be back in the lineup against another former top prospect in Angels’ righty Grayson Rodriguez, who has given up four homers in his 31 innings this season. Lefties have hit three of those four homers with a .449 wOBA, and at home, Rodriguez has an ugly 9.58 ERA with three homers and a .424 wOBA against him
Since Rodriguez has struggled in those splits, Keith makes sense as a power option who is surging coming into Saturday.
