The second half gets started tonight at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Phillies (54-43) are on a roll, having gone 45-24 under interim manager Don Mattingly. Now, they’ll hope to carry over that momentum into a four-game set against the rival Mets (40-57). New York has suffered through a dismal season, looking destined for a late July fire sale. Still, there’s enough talent on this roster to pull off an upset. Which of these two NL East foes will come out on top this evening?
The Phillies are favorites (-131) over the Mets, with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between New York and Philadelphia on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mets vs. Phillies pick, best bet today
- Mets vs. Phillies under 9.5 runs (-112): Nola has looked better in recent weeks, while the Mets have been anemic on the road. As for Scott, he should avoid getting into lengthy counts against a Phillies lineup that swings early. Expect both starters to prevent things from getting out of hand on Thursday.
Mets vs. Phillies prediction, preview
It’ll be Christian Scott on the bump this evening for the Mets. All things considered, it’s been a solid campaign so far for the right-hander. Through 54.0 innings of work, he’s notched a 3.17 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 65 strikeouts (10.8 K/9). Granted, those numbers are somewhat misleading. Scott’s biggest issue is length; he hasn’t tossed 6.0 innings in any of his 12 starts this season. He’s also had some difficulty with his command (4.3 BB/9). Regardless, Scott has been undeniably effective when on the mound. To boot, the 27-year-old pitches better on the road (2.79 ERA) than on the road (3.60 ERA).
New York’s hurler will face a significant challenge this evening at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are loaded with star power in their lineup, led by sluggers Kyle Schwarber (149 wRC+) and Bryce Harper (133 wRC+). With that being said, they haven’t been operating like a juggernaut this season. Philadelphia has a .715 OPS against right-handed pitching, only good enough for 16th-best in baseball. As previously mentioned, Scott has had difficulty finding the plate. With that being said, the Phillies are averaging the league’s third-fewest walks per game (2.96). When New York’s starter faced the Fightins on June 27th, the righty tossed 4.1 innings of two-run ball.
On the other side, Aaron Nola will be making his 20th start of the season. The former All-Star has looked like a shell of his old self, ranking among the worst pitchers in baseball. Over 97.0 innings, he’s on the hook for a 5.75 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 102 strikeouts (9.5 K/9). With that being said, the veteran is slowly beginning to turn things around. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine appearances. That’s not quite cause for celebration, but Phillies fans would sign up for decent rather than dreadful pitching from Nola at this point.
During this recent stretch, Nola spun five innings of two-run ball against the Mets on June 18th. Granted, that’s not saying much; this offense has ranked among baseball’s worst units all season. New York is 23rd in runs scored (398) and 26th in OPS vs. right-handed pitching (.683). In addition, the team is averaging a National League-worst 3.81 runs per game on the road. Add it all up, and it’s difficult to have much confidence in the visitors on offense. It’ll likely take a big effort at the plate tonight from stars Juan Soto (163 wRC+) and Francisco Lindor (90 wRC+).
Best Bet: Mets vs. Phillies under 9.5 runs (-112)
The Mets are a mess on offense, struggling to do much whenever Soto isn’t at bat. Nola is a difficult player to back, but I’m willing to bet he avoids getting shelled tonight. As for Scott, his propensity for walking batters might not play a major role against Philadelphia’s undisciplined lineup. Coming out of the All-Star break, expect most hitters to shake off the rust in this one.
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