Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
There’s just one game this evening, as the MLB regular season gets rolling after the All-Star break. Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Mets vs. Phillies: Juan Soto and Bryce Harper.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | +232 | Aaron Nola is one of the 10 pitchers who has surrendered at least 20 long balls at the All-Star break. He’s simply giving up too much quality contact — especially to left-handed hitters. No one knows that better than Soto, as he hit a pair of homers last time he faced Nola on June 18. Soto also owns a 99th percentile expected slugging rate so far this season (.615). |
| Bryce Harper | +294 | Christian Scott’s been absolutely plagued by home runs in his last four starts. It’s a span where the right-hander has conceded 3.00 opponent home runs per nine, with all six of the homers he’s given up coming off the bat of a left-handed hitter. Harper is an LHB. Harper also has 20 home runs in 2026 with a 97th percentile expected wOBA (.391). |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Juan Soto 1+ Home Run (+232)
You know, if you’re looking for home runs on a one-game slate, it’s quite the blessing to have Aaron Nola taking the mound for one of the teams. Let’s just say the veteran is having a rough campaign. Not only is Nola one of the 10 pitchers who has surrendered at least 20 long balls at the All-Star break, but he’s earned every single one of those indignities. The veteran RHP sports a career-low 39.4% ground ball rate and a 17th percentile opponent barrel rate (10.0%). He’s simply giving up too much quality contact — especially to left-handed hitters. Lefties are averaging 1.95 home runs per nine off Nola in 2026 with a .502 slugging percentage. Two of those recent homers within the split? They were produced by Soto back on June 18. In fact, they were the fourth and fifth homers that Soto has hit off Nola in 45 career at-bats. The All-Star clearly sees the long-time Phillies’ starter well, and Soto also owns a 99th percentile expected slugging rate so far this season (.615). What more do you need?
Bryce Harper 1+ Home Run (+294)
It’s interesting. Despite being a fly ball pitcher — as evidenced by a career 0.67 GB/FB ratio — home runs have really been an issue for Christian Scott. Well, that is until a month ago. After allowing just a single long ball across his first eight outings of the season, Scott’s been absolutely plagued by home runs in his last four starts for the Mets. It’s a span where the right-hander has conceded 3.00 opponent home runs per nine, with all six of the homers he’s given up coming off the bat of a left-handed hitter. We all know how this translates to the Phillies’ lineup. Kyle Schwarber (+181) justifiably has the shortest odds of anyone to go deep this evening, but I have a hard time backing a favorite that strong. I’d rather take my chances with Harper, who has odds closer to 3/1. Harper has 20 home runs in 2026 with a 97th percentile expected wOBA (.391). He’s quite the “back-up” plan in this market.
