Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for Week 1’s game opener between Oregon and Boise State out on the west coast.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Oregon vs. Boise State player props
Maddux Madsen Over 175.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Boise State walks out the tunnel into the Ducks’ Autzen Stadium as a 24.5-point underdog, and that’s causing the market to establish an unusually-low passing line for senior quarterback Maddux Madsen. The Broncos do prefer a physical running game when their gameplans remain neutral, but falling behind Oregon—which they will—will force them away from their preferred identity. And so that brings us to Madsen’s arm. He averaged 212.2 passing yards last season, nearly 37 yards above this number allready.
In fact, excluding his four-attempt injury exit against Fresno State, Madsen cleared 175.5 in eight of ten games he started and finished. Those results included 215 yards at Notre Dame (despite four picks), and 289 against UNLV in the 2025 conference championship. His misses were 175 exactly, just the hook, at Nevada, and that ugly 51 number against Washington following his late-season return.
Oregon’s defense allowed only 157.9 passing yards per game in 2025, so any sort of consistency for Madsen will be difficult. We’re banking on volume. And we’re not asking for points. Boise State attempted 40 passes during its last 2024 visit to Oregon, even while now-Raiders-RB Ashton Jeanty was the focus on the ground. Jeanty is long gone, and this spread anticipates a far less favorable script for the Broncos. I like Madsen to get 32-to-36 attempts, which makes 176 yards reachable through even just checkdowns and garbage time.
Evan Stewart Under 4.5 Receptions (-130)
Evan Stewart is starting once more in Oregon’s lineup after a torn patellar tendon cost him the entire 2025 campaign. Reports from camp indicate he is fully healthy and ready to be at top-speed/-explosiveness, but this will be his first non-exhibition game in nearly 21 months. I think five receptions is a tipple aggressive, expectationswise, especially with Oregon favored by more than three touchdowns. They may not need to feed Stewart targets/volume in order for them to win the game.
Stewart’s production profile is fine. He caught 48 passes in 13 appearances during 2024, averaging out to 3.7 per game. He finished below five catches that season nine times, including seven of his first nine games. Against this very Boise State program that season, he racked up 112 yards on exactly five catches. Hooked.
Oregon’s current 2026 target tree is quite overcooked. Dakorien Moore, Jeremiah McClellan, and Jamari Johnson each caught at least 32 passes last season. UAB transfer Iverson Hooks will steal some of Stewart’s underneath looks. QB Dante Moore averaged 27.5 attempts in 2025, and a big lead could shorten his afternoon. It is, after all, Week 1.
So yes—Stewart can create a splash play, score, and remain below this total. But with four legitimate primary targets, I make Stewart closer to three catches than five.
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