Major League Baseball has just two more days before the All-Star break, and this Saturday is another jam-packed slate of action with all 30 teams on the schedule throughout the afternoon and evening, including a doubleheader in Pittsburgh. While hot and humid weather will boost offensive production overall, there are a few games where weather could cause delays or postponements, so be sure to check the updated forecast as we approach the first pitch. Looking at the 16 games on the scoreboard, a few strong places to attack for home run props stand out. Based on the environments, matchups and odds, my top home run props from Saturday are Ben Rice, George Springer and Mookie Betts.
It should be a great day to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice | Yankees | Rice has seven homers in his last 10 games with a 57.1% hard-hit rate and an elite 21.4% barrel rate. He’s in a great matchup against Miles Mikolas. |
| George Springer | Blue Jays | Springer has 9 homers in 64 games this season and gets a good matchup with Walker Buehler, who has served up 5 homers in his last two starts. |
| Mookie Betts | Dodgers | Betts is 10-for-24 (.417) with a double and two homers in his career against Dbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Ben Rice to hit a home run (+278)
Rice is getting ready for the home run derby, and the 27-year-old lefty seems to have shaken off his June swoon. Over his last 10 games, Rice has smashed seven homers after going yard in Washington on Friday night. During that span, he has a 57.1% hard-hit rate and an elite 21.4% barrel rate.
Rice has 29 homers this season, with 21 homers against righties with a .368 ISO and 1.046 OPS on that side of his splits.
He has a good chance to get to 30 homers on Saturday as he takes on righty Miles Mikolas, who has allowed 20 homers in 19 games, including 12 homers in nine games at Nationals Park, where he has a 6.45 ERA. The veteran righty has allowed six homers in his last four starts and gave up seven runs in six innings in his last start, even though he ended up earning the win.
Rice will look to keep cooking on Saturday afternoon in D.C., and his matchup with Mikolas makes him a strong early option in today’s home run props to target.
George Springer to hit a home run (+490)
The Blue Jays are in San Diego, taking on Walker Buehler and the Padres on Saturday night at Petco Park. In that matchup, Springer is a strong option as a long-shot play. He has been limited to 64 games this season by injury, but he has smashed nine homers, including one on Wednesday in his first game back from emergency family medical leave.
Last season, Springer had a huge bounce-back power season, hitting 32 homers after hitting 25 or fewer in seven straight seasons. His power resurgence has continued this year, despite his limited playing time.
He has gone 1-for-8 against Buehler in their past meetings, but that one hit was a home run. Buehler had been good this year, overall, until his last two outings. He allowed 16 runs on 14 hits over his last two starts against the Cubs and Diamondbacks, allowing five homers in those two contests. He had only given up six homers in his previous 16 starts, but he has been very hittable in the last two games. Most of the homers against him have been hit by righties, who have connected on eight homers with a .203 ISO and 12% barrel rate.
Springer will be on the strong side of those splits as he looks to go into the break with some good momentum for the second half as he helps the Blue Jays start to turn things around.
Mookie Betts to hit a home run (+431)
The Dodgers are hosting the Diamondbacks as Brandon Pfaadt makes the start for Arizona, setting up a favorable matchup for Mookie. In the past, Betts has gone 10-for-24 (.417) with a double and two homers against Pfaadt.
His odds are a little longer since he hasn’t homered in the last 10 games, with a 46.2% hard-hit rate and 5.1% barrel rate. He’s hitting .275 over that stretch with a .302 wOBA, but he only had three doubles for his extra-base hits.
Like Springer, Betts has missed a lot of time this season, but he does have 11 homers in his 58 games this year, with nine of those coming against righties like Buehler, including his last blast on June 27 against the Padres.
Betts has seen the ball so well from Pfaadt in the past that he makes sense as a longshot play on Saturday night. He still has the ability to go yard and brings great upside as well.
